BoE’s Taylor: Proceeding towards inflation normalisation at a reasonable pace
Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Alan Taylor said in a fireside chat at Deutsche Bank in London during European trading hours on Monday that the United Kingdom (UK) services inflation has cooled down at a more moderate pace than he hoped.
Remarks
Weaker forecast in terms of output gap and jobless.
Services CPI has not fallen as quickly or as far as hoped.
Services CPI has been slightly concerning in recent months.
I am looking for service price inflation to normalise along with wage growth this year.
I have become more reassured that we are proceeding towards inflation normalisation at a reasonable pace.
Weaker than expected productivity growth could be a risk to the outlook.
The jobs forecasts are converging on a pessimistic outlook.
Risks are shifting to lower inflation, higher unemployment.
We might have 2-3 rate cuts to go before theoretical neutral level.
Market reaction
There seems to be a slight negative impact of BoE Taylor's comments on the Pound Sterling (GBP). As of writing, GBP/USD trades 0.17% higher to near 1.3500 even after giving back significant early gains.
BoE FAQs
The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP).
When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling.
In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.
Author
Sagar Dua
FXStreet
Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.
