Australia: Sharp decline in Q3 GDP, but it’s expected to bounce back - HSBC

Sandeep Kanihama FXStreet Contributor

Research Team at HSBC, shares their view on Australia’s Q3 GDP that today’s GDP print was very weak and a significant downside surprise as the real GDP fell by -0.5% q-o-q (market had -0.1% q-o-q), which was the first quarterly fall in GDP since Q1 2011.

Key Quotes

“The downside surprise was mostly driven by a sharper-than expected fall in investment, which more than offset a modest rise in household consumption and inventories. Net exports were a drag in the quarter, as coal production was also temporarily disrupted. However, the Q3 results pre-date much of the ramp up in bulk commodity export prices and there is a significant ramp up in export volumes yet to come from capacity that has already been built. The strong rise in bulk commodity prices is set to support a boost to incomes in Q4. Timely indicators of business sentiment, retail sales and job advertisements suggest a lift in growth in Q4. In short, we think this will be a one-off decline, with growth returning in Q4.”

Author

Sandeep Kanihama

FXStreet Contributor

Sandeep Kanihama is an FX Editor and Analyst with FXstreet having principally focus area on Asia and European markets with commodity, currency and equities coverage. He is stationed in the Indian capital city of Delhi.

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