AUD/USD ticks up to near 0.6510 as US Dollar corrects further

AUD/USD rises marginally to near 0.6510 amid weakness in the US Dollar.
The US Dollar declines amid the ongoing US government shutdown.
Fed dovish bets recede further after upbeat US data.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

The AUD/USD pair edges higher to near 0.6505 during the European trading session on Thursday. The Aussie pair ticks up as the US Dollar (USD) extends its correction amid rising United States (US) economic concerns due to the ongoing federal shutdown.

At the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.18% lower to near 100.00. The USD Index faced selling pressure on Wednesday after posting a fresh over five-month high near 100.35.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the British Pound.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.23%	-0.29%	-0.26%	-0.07%	-0.06%	0.07%	-0.16%
EUR	0.23%		-0.05%	-0.04%	0.17%	0.17%	0.31%	0.07%
GBP	0.29%	0.05%		0.00%	0.21%	0.23%	0.36%	0.12%
JPY	0.26%	0.04%	0.00%		0.20%	0.22%	0.32%	0.11%
CAD	0.07%	-0.17%	-0.21%	-0.20%		0.02%	0.14%	-0.11%
AUD	0.06%	-0.17%	-0.23%	-0.22%	-0.02%		0.13%	-0.11%
NZD	-0.07%	-0.31%	-0.36%	-0.32%	-0.14%	-0.13%		-0.24%
CHF	0.16%	-0.07%	-0.12%	-0.11%	0.11%	0.11%	0.24%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Broadly, the outlook of the US Dollar remains firm as traders have trimmed bets supporting more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.50%-3.75% in the December meeting has eased to 62.5% from 68.6% seen on Tuesday.

Fed dovish bets eased after the release of the US ADP Employment Change and the ISM Services PMI data for October released on Wednesday. The ADP reported that the private sector added added fresh 42K fresh jobs, higher than estimates of 25K. In September, employers laid off 29K workers. The Services PMI came in at 52.4, the highest level seen in eight months.

Though the Australian Dollar (AUD) trades marginally higher against the US Dollar, the former is under pressure against its other peers despite upbeat monthly Trade Balance data for September.

Earlier in the day, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the Trade Surplus widened to 3,938 million, beat estimates of 3,850 million and the prior reading of 1,111 million. Exports returned from black and rose by 7.9%. Meanwhile, Imports rose by 1.1% MoM, compared to a previous rise of 3.3%.

Economic Indicator

Trade Balance (MoM)

The trade balance released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the difference in the value of its imports and exports of Australian goods. Export data can give an important reflection of Australian growth, while imports provide an indication of domestic demand. Trade Balance gives an early indication of the net export performance. If a steady demand in exchange for Australian exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.

GBP/USD extends the drop to 1.3360

GBP/USD builds on Monday’s decline and briefly clinches five-day lows near 1.3360 on Tuesday. Cable’s extra pullback follows the better tone in the Greenback as uncertainty in the Middle East prompts investors to adopt a cautious stance. Meanwhile, an apathetic UK labour market report also collaborates with the selling pressure on the British Pound.

EUR/USD looks inconclusive near 1.1420

EUR/USD trades in a tight range in the low 1.1400s on Tuesday, struggling to gain momentum amid an equally absence of clear direction in the US Dollar (USD). Uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran conflict is capping the pair’s upside, while traders avoid taking significant positions ahead of Thursday’s ECB gathering.

Gold shows signs of life; focus is back to $4,100

Gold gains ground on Tuesday, reversing Monday’s pessimism and advancing toward the $4,100 mark per troy ounce. Nevertheless, uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict and rising expectations for a hawkish Fed policy outlook are expected to limit the precious metal’s bullish momentum in the near term.

XRP extends recovery as on-chain activity grows

Ripple (XRP) ticks up and trades around $1.13 at the time of writing on Tuesday. This rebound aligns with a broader recovery in the cryptocurrency market, attributed to reports that mediators between the United States (US) and Iran are seeking a 10-day cessation of strikes to find a way back to the signed Memorandum of Understanding (MoU).

The Iranian war has again risen

The Iranian war has again risen to the top of the economics factor list. There is no end in sight. Intelligence experts say the current level of offense/retaliation will not change minds in Tehran, while in Washington, Trump fears all-out war, which would mean boots on the ground.

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?

The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.