- AUD/USD fell into familiar lows after a rejection from 0.6625.
- The Aussie found a floor near 0.6575, but upside momentum remains thin.
- Australian CPI inflation in the pipe ahead of Wednesday’s Fed rate call.
AUD/USD is cycling the 0.6600 handle in a rough range as Aussie (AUD) traders gear up for Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation due during the early Wednesday session ahead of another rate cal from the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
Australia’s fourth-quarter CPI is expected to contract slightly on an annualized basis, with the headline YoY CPI forecast to print at 4.3% versus the previous 5.4% and the QoQ data expected to slip to 0.8% from 1.2%.
On the Fed side, markets are awaiting a pivot from Fed chairman Jerome Powell. Rate swap markets have seen their rate cut bets steadily pushed further out, and the CME’s FedWatch Tool now sees a less than 40% chance of a first rate cut from the Fed in March. Swaps originally priced in an over 80% chance of a March rate trim back in December, but easing inflation and stubbornly strong economic data from the US over the last quarter renders a rate cut from the Fed next to impossible for fear of re-stoking inflationary pressure.
The back half of the trading week will cap off with China’s Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) figure expected to tick down slightly from 50.8 to 50.6, and broader markets will be looking for a softer print in Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls. Friday’s NFP is forecast to tick down to 180K for January from December’s 216K.
AUD/USD technical outlook
The AUD/USD reclaimed the 0.6600 handle on Tuesday after a near-term dip into 0.6575, and the pair is catching intraday technical support from the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 0.6590.
The Aussie continues to catch technical support from the 200-day SMA just above 0.6550 on the daily candlesticks. The pair is still caught in a congestion pattern below the 50-day SMA just above 0.6650.
AUD/USD hourly chart
AUD/USD daily chart
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD retreats below 1.1250, markets await comments from Fed policymakers
EUR/USD struggles to preserve its bullish momentum and retreats below the 1.1250 area in the second half of the day on Tuesday. The cautious market mood and the modest USD rebound weigh on the pair as investors await comments from Federal Reserve officials.
GBP/USD pulls away from daily highs, trades below 1.3350
GBP/USD declines after rising toward 1.3400 earlier in the day and trades below 1.3350 in the American session. The US Dollar holds its ground following Monday's slide, causing the pair to stretch lower. Ahead of Wednesday's UK inflation data, investors will pay close attention to comments from central bankers.
Gold clings to small daily gains above $3,200
Gold fluctuates in a narrow channel above $3,200 on Tuesday after posting small gains to start the week. While the risk-averse market atmosphere helps XAU/USD hold its ground, the Fed's cautious tone on policy easing doesn't allow the pair to gain traction.
Bitcoin fails to reach all-time high despite building institutional and state support
Bitcoin price stabilizes around $105,200 on Tuesday, just 4% shy of its all-time high at $109,588. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says the bank will let clients buy Bitcoin.The Texas House is set to conduct a second reading of a bill that, if passed, would establish a Bitcoin Reserve.
China April slowdown shows the impact of economic uncertainty
Trade war uncertainty is denting Chinese confidence, resulting in slower economic activity in April. Retail sales and fixed-asset investment both underperformed forecasts amid heightened caution. Yet the impact on manufacturing was less than feared.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.