AUD/USD: RBA to promote unwind of Aussie gains – CIBC


Analysts at CIBC, see the Australian dollar weakening versus the US dollar on the back of actions implemented by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The forecast AUD/USD at 0.69 by the fourth quarter. 

Key Quotes: 

“A broad reversal and consolidation of USD weakness has contributed to AUD/USD losses, though weakness on other crosses, including vs JPY, EUR and CAD is more telling. We anticipate further weakness over the coming weeks and into the next year.”

“Weakness will be driven by a challenging domestic economic environment – highlighted by slowing growth and rising unemployment. The RBA will respond with greater monetary accommodation, and continue, at times subtle, efforts to talk the currency lower. Ongoing tension with China, that has seen some exports to the country slow, or face restrictions, are concerning.”

“The RBA may have previously ruled out negative cash rates, though by mentioning that they remain in the policy toolbox, the market is now not so sure they won’t be used. Our expectation is that the central bank will reduce the cash rate target to 10bps from the current 25bps before year-end. The present YCC target of 25bps in the 3-year tenor is also expected to be cut to the same level.”

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