|

AUD/USD Price Analysis: Bulls still got skin in the game, eye 0.68 territories but bears lurk

  • AUD/USD rallies towards trendline resistance.
  • Bears could be lurking in the 0.68s as W-formation is a pull. 

AUD/USD bulls were thrown a lifeline in Asia following Chinese data that surprised in a big way to the upside, following a disappointment in local data from Australia that would have otherwise tipped the bias to the bears for the foreseeable future. 

The following illustrates the potential from here for the price to continue higher for the foreseeable future but also notes that there could be a pull in gravity due to the daily chart's W-formation. 

In prior analysis, it was noted that AUD/USD had reached toward a 50% mean reversion area and had been starting to come under pressure. However, it was also noted that this was not to say that the correction is on the way out. Instead, it could have been building up into a geometrical pattern:

A target of the 78.6% Fibonacci higher up near 0.6800 would align with the daily trendline resistance as follows:

However, the cracks started to come through in Asia: Aussie data dump crashes AUD/USD

AUD/USD had broken a trendline support, invalidating a thesis for a stronger correction (in the meantime), resisted by the 50% mean reversion of the prior bearish impulse:

It was stated that the data would be expected to continue to weigh on the Aussie as aggressive monetary tightening is likely cooling the economy and therefore casting a move dovish sentiment over the Reserve Bank of Australia.

However, along came Chinese data to the rescue, throwing the bulls a much-needed lifeline: 

China NBS Manufacturing / Non-manufacturing PMIs beats are a welcome surprise for AUD bulls

We have seen a significant recovery in AUD/USD as follows: 

This puts 0.6800 back on the map.

However, from a daily chart standpoint, the trendline resistance is a roadblock for higher:

Coupled with the W-formation, there could be a weight of gravity on the bulls for the foreseeable future:

Author

Ross J Burland

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

More from Ross J Burland
Share:

Editor's Picks

Japanese Yen weakens to two-year lows, targets 162.00

USD/JPY extends its advance well north of the 161.00 barrier on Thursday, always on the back of the continuation of the US Dollar's post-Fed rebound and despite warnings from the BoJ of a potential intervention at any time. Next on the upside for spot comes the July 2024 peak in levels just shy of 162.00 the figure.

AUD/USD trims gains, challenges 0.7000

AUD/USD now alternates gains with losses just above the key 0.7000 level ahead of the opening bell in Asia. The pair clinches its third consecutive daily retracement, always on the back of the persistent move higher in the Greenback, particularly following the Fed’s hawkish hold on Wednesday.

Gold drops to daily lows near $4,200

Gold struggles to attract buyers on Thursday, trading closer to the $4,200 mark per troy ounce. The yellow metal adds to Wednesday’s pullback and slips back to multi-day lows in response to the stronger US Dollar following the Fed’s hawkish hold on Wednesday.

XRP vulnerable below key EMA resistance levels
Ripple (XRP) ticks down below $1.20 with short-term support at $1.16 intact at the time of writing on Thursday. An early-week rally was rejected at $1.28, weighing on sentiment as traders broadly de-risked.
Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.

The next big AI trade may not be about chips or software

Artificial intelligence has already created some of the biggest winners in modern market history. Chipmakers have surged, data centre construction is booming, and electricity demand forecasts are changing globally.