AUD/USD: needs a catlyst to break 0.7750 and 0.7810 familiar range

Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7795, up 0.08% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7797 and low at 0.7786.

FOMC Minutes: Many Fed officials saw another rate hike warranted this year

AUD/USD has been a round trip, recovering from 0.7770 lows to a high of 0.7798 NY highs. The moves have been dollar driven and buoyant risk assets have underpinned AUD/USD on dips. The FOMC minutes had something for everyone, but the split in outlooks from Fed officials on inflation dominated event and weighed on the dollar as some members wonder whether the period of low inflation is indeed transitory. 

CME Group FedWatch's December hike probability eased below 90% post-FOMC minutes

AUD/USD 1 day: 

Analysts at Westpac expect further consolidation between 0.7750 and 0.7810, following a 5% fall over the past month and the recent stall in the USD.

AUD/USD 1-3 month: 

Further out, the analysts explained that should the RBA remains firmly on hold, as they expect, and if the US dollar rises on the delivery of a Fed interest rate rise in December, then AUD/USD could fall to 0.76 by year-end. 

AUD/USD levels

The bears are stacked at 0.7820, 23.6% of 0.8105 (Sept 20 top) to 0.7733. The price continues to change hands below the 50 4hr SMA at 0.7801 and the said 23.6% of 0.8105 (Sept 20 top) to 0.7733. This is also below the cloud for the 5th day in a row. 

To the downside, a break of 0.7733 opens risk to 0.7710 as the 30th June peak. There is scope for  0.7684 on continued supply as being the previous 2016-2017 resistance line. Reversal attempts still looking to struggle in absence of an event.

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