AUD/USD looking for lower ground below 0.78 handle?

Ross J Burland FXStreet

Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7791, down -0.05% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7797 and low at 0.7790.

For the Aussie in the recent sessions, the focus went from the big miss in Retail Sales which fell 0.6% vs +0.3% exp to US data that, in stark contrast to that of Australia's, added to the conviction that the Fed is on course to hike again this December and again next year.

AUD/USD fell below 0.7830 on the retails sales data in Asia and stayed there with some hawkishness in the background by an ex-RBA member.

0.7818 was European am low and where NY opened, 0.7787 was the low (AU-US yield spread tightened sharply), closing at 0/7794.

The US dollar index is up 0.6% on the day, to a two-month high. The US 10yr yields rallied from 2.32% to 2.36 while the Fed fund futures yields hardened slightly to price the chance of a December rate hike at 84%.

The next major risk for the greenback comes with the nonfarm payrolls.

US employment report preview - Nomura

AUD/USD 1 day:

Analysts at Westpac noted that a break below 0.7785 would then target 0.7710 (30 June peak), suggesting this is probably dependant on the USD recovering further (for which tonight’s US payrolls data is key).

AUD/USD 1-3 month:

"If the RBA remains firmly on hold, as we expect, and the US dollar rises on delivery of a Fed interest rate rise in December, then AUD/USD could fall to 0.76 by year-end," the analysts added.

AUD/USD levels

Valaria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet, explained that the pair is biased lower according to technical readings in the 4 hours chart, as the pair extended lower after breaking below its 20 SMA, now gaining downward strength around 0.7830, while technical indicators head south within negative territory, with a strong downward momentum.

"A break below the mentioned weekly low should fuel the decline, although a relevant support stands not far below, at 0.7749, March 21st high," Valeria added.

Author

Ross J Burland

FXStreet

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

GBP/USD tumbles to three-day lows around 1.3420

GBP/USD comes under extra selling pressure and revisits the area of multi-day lows near 1.3420 in quite a bearish start to the week. Cable’s decline comes amid the firmer Greenback as investors continue to assess developments in the US-Iran conflict. Moving forward, attention will turn to the UK employment report on Tuesday.

EUR/USD meets some initial contention around 1.1400

EUR/USD keeps the bearish bias well in place, slipping back toward the 1.1400 region, where some initial support appears to have turned up. The auspicious start to the week of the US Dollar has kept the risk complex under pressure as investors has continued to closely follow developments from the Middle East conflict. The release of the ZEW Economic Sentiment in the Euroland and Germany are next on tap on the domestic calendar.

Gold stuck just above $4,000

Gold reverses Friday’s uptick, gyrating around the key $4,000 mark per troy ounce at the beginning of the week. Escalating military action in the Middle East provides some support to the safe-haven metal, although expectations of higher US interest rates bolster the US Dollar and keeps its under the microscope.

Ethereum Price Forecast: BitMine slows ETH accumulation in favor of share buybacks

Ethereum (ETH) is hovering near $1,900 following a drop in accumulation by BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) in favor of $85 million worth of share buybacks and continued recovery in ETH exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Ethereum treasury firm BitMine scooped up 7,430 ETH last week, marking its lowest weekly acquisition since pivoting to a crypto treasury model.

Here's where the Canadian Dollar is headed next: 4 bearish scenarios and a bullish one

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has ridden a volatile first half of the year, with Oil prices surging and then falling as markets danced to the Middle East’s tune. Neither the Bank of Canada nor the Federal Reserve has changed rates so far this year, and the USD/CAD's next move may depend on which of the two banks fails to deliver what markets expect.

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?

The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.