|

AUD/USD: Further gains to 0.7850 in the first quarter – CIBC

The Australian dollar was amongst the strongest major currencies in the last quarter of 2020 and has begun 2021 in a similar fashion. Economists at CIBC Capital Markets look for further strength in the AUD/USD pair amidst a broadly weaker USD and economic recoveries.

Key quotes

“From present levels, we target further gains in AUD/USD, to 0.7850 in Q1.”

“A rebound in domestic economic activity, underpinned by accommodative monetary policy, was a strong driver of AUD strength to date. We anticipate that support to continue.”

“The apparent shrugging off of trade tensions between Australia and China is notable, as there remains a clear sense of market caution over a situation that generates plenty of headlines. The significance being, that should some resolution be found, or tension itself calm, we would anticipate a positive response in AUD.”

“On trade, the contribution of iron ore cannot be dismissed, any talk of that market between Australia and China would be concerning. Unless that is the case, we remain bullish and buyers of AUD weakness.”

Author

More from FXStreet Team
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD posts modest gains above 1.1700 as ECB signals pause

The EUR/USD pair posts modest gains around 1.1710 during the early Asian session on Monday. The Euro strengthens against the Greenback after the European Central Bank left its policy rates unchanged and took a more positive view on the Eurozone economy, which has shown resilience to global trade shocks. Financial markets are likely to remain subdued as traders book profits ahead of the long holiday period.

GBP/USD steadies below 1.3400 as traders assess BoE policy outlook

Following Thursday's volatile session, GBP/USD moves sideways below 1.3400 on Friday. Investors reassess the Bank of England's policy oıtlook after the MPC decided to cut the interest rate by 25 bps by a slim margin. Meanwhile, the improving risk mood helps the pair hold its ground.

Gold: 2026 could see new record-highs but a 2025-like rally is unlikely

Gold started the year on a bullish note and registered impressive gains in the first quarter. Following a consolidation phase during the summer months, the precious metal surged higher in the third quarter and reached an all-time record high of $4,381 in October. Although XAU/USD corrected lower, buyers refused to hand over the reins heading into the holiday season.

Week ahead: Key risks to watch in last days of 2025 and early 2026

The festive period officially starts next week, with many traders vacating their desks until the first full week of January, making way for thin trading volumes and very few top-tier releases.

How much can one month of soft inflation change the Fed’s mind?

One month of softer inflation data is rarely enough to shift Federal Reserve policy on its own, but in a market highly sensitive to every data point, even a single reading can reshape expectations. November’s inflation report offered a welcome sign of cooling price pressures. 

XRP rebounds amid ETF inflows and declining retail demand demand

XRP rebounds as bulls target a short-term breakout above $2.00 on Friday. XRP ETFs record the highest inflow since December 8, signaling growing institutional appetite.