AUD/USD at a brink of breaking lower

Aussie the most vulnerable across the FX board.
RBA to have a monetary policy meeting, maintain the status quo.

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

The Aussie remains among the weakest currencies across the FX board, as early USD weakness saw the pair barely advancing up to 0.7694, while a resurgent greenback after the US opening pushed the pair near the 2018 low set last week at 0.7642. The commodity-linked currency can't attract buyers, despite gold prices are strongly up for the day, amid renewed concerns about a trade war between the US and China sending investors into the safe-haven metal.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is having a monetary policy meeting this Tuesday. The central bank is largely expected to keep its main cash rate unchanged for another month, as Gov. Lowe has reiterated multiple times that they are in no rush of raising rates, despite whatever the rest of the world does. The accompanying statement could shed some light on future decisions of the RBA, with the focus on the employment sector, as data has been disappointing this 2018, following solid growth in the sector during 2017.

Technical outlook

The AUD/USD pair has been in a downtrend ever since topping at 0.8135 in January, and has broken below a major Fibonacci level, the 61.8% retracement of the December/January bullish run at 0.7740 mid-March, with the sour tone of the Aussie accelerating afterward. Short-term supports come at 0.7642, ahead of the 0.7600 figure, while below this last, the slide will likely extend to December low at 0.7501. Resistances come at 0.7694, the daily high, ahead of the mentioned Fibonacci resistance at 0.7740.

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

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