AUD/USD Price Forecast: More upside looks likely as 20-day EMA slopes higher

AUD/USD rises to near 0.7085 as the Australian Dollar outperforms its peers.
The RBA raised its OCR by 25 bps to 3.85% in the policy meeting this month.
The US Dollar remains steady even as US inflation cools down.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

The AUD/USD pair trades 0.17% higher to near 0.7085 at the start of the European trading session on Monday. The Aussie pair rises as the Australian Dollar (AUD) outperforms its peers ahead of the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy minutes of the February meeting on Tuesday.

In the policy meeting, the RBA hiked its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.85% and kept the door open for further monetary tightening amid upside inflation risks.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) trades broadly stable as dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations for the March and April policy meetings remain steady despite cooling United States (US) inflationary pressures in January.

At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is up marginally to near 96.95.

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed on Friday that the headline inflation dropped to 2.4% Year-on-year (YoY) from 2.7% in December.

AUD/USD technical analysis

In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7085. The 20-day exponential moving average rises, now at 0.6982. Pullbacks have been supported above this dynamic level, keeping the short-term bias positive. RSI at 66 remains in bullish territory without being overbought, confirming firm momentum.

The rising trend line from 0.6669 underpins the advance, offering support near 0.6997. Holding above the line would keep the topside path open, while a close below it could bring the 20-day EMA back into focus as the next support reference.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Economic Indicator

RBA Meeting Minutes

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the AUD.

Why it matters to traders?

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) publishes the minutes of its monetary policy meeting two weeks after the interest rate decision is announced. It provides a detailed record of the discussions held between the RBA’s board members on monetary policy and economic conditions that influenced their decision on adjusting interest rates and/or bond buys, significantly impacting the AUD. The minutes also reveal considerations on international economic developments and the exchange rate value.

Author

Sagar Dua

FXStreet

Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.

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