Summary
Webinar by Joseph Trevisani.
Brexit is a fact, but nothing else is. How, when, what and by whom the British exit from the European Union will be negotiated is still to be decided. The U.S. economy seems to have rebounded from two quarters of dismal growth and falling job creation. Yet there is nothing in sight beyond more of the same-- mediocre growth, flat productivity and stagnant wages. China has resumed devaluing the yuan, 10 percent since last August and the currency is headed to 6.83 against the dollar, where it was fixed for two years during and after the financial crisis. In Japan, the first arrow of Abenomics, yen devaluation has failed, and the second and third arrows, fiscal stimulus and economic reform are moribund.
All this is despite eight years of vast and continuing monetary stimulus from the world's central banks, $10 trillion of negative yielding sovereign debt and the lowest interest rates in history.
Wherever the world economy goes from here it is bound to chancy, interesting and without precedent.
Join us for a survey of the global economy in the second half of 2016.
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Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD recovers above 1.1600 as focus shifts to US NFP
EUR/USD recovers ground above 1.1600 in Friday's European trading. The pair's uptick is sponsored by a profit-taking pullback in the US Dollar, as traders reposition ahead of the critical US Nonfarm Payrolls data. Meanwhile, the Middle East conflict and higher oil prices could keep the recovery in check.
GBP/USD rebounds toward 1.3400 in countdown to US NFP
GBP/USD is rebounding toward 1.3400 in the European session on Friday. A modest improvement in risk sentiment and a broad-based US Dollar retreat help the pair recover its weekly losses. The focus now remains on the US NFP data and Middle East headlines for fresh trading incentives.
Gold advances on increased safe-haven demand
Gold price recovers its recent losses from the previous session. The yellow metal advances as the broader precious metals market rebounds on safe-haven demand. However, the yellow metal is on track for its first weekly decline in five weeks as escalating Middle East tensions push oil prices higher, fueling inflation concerns and reducing bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts.
US Nonfarm Payrolls expected to show hiring moderated in February
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Nonfarm Payrolls data for February at 13:30 GMT. Volatility around the US Dollar will likely ramp up on the employment report, with investors looking for fresh insights on the US Federal Reserve’s path forward on interest rates, especially after the crisis in the Middle East revived concerns over rising inflation.
The market compass is pointing at a barrel of Oil
The Asian open is arriving with equities leaning the wrong way, and the reason is not complicated. The market’s compass needle has snapped firmly toward crude. In this tape, oil is not just another input price; it is the gravitational center around which every asset class is orbiting.
Here is what you need to know for Friday, March 6:
The US Dollar (USD) is being supported by crude oil prices, which rose to its highest level since July 2024, amid headlines of potential interruptions to the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on vessels in the region.