Summary
This month’s Fed rate decision is easily the most anticipated, analyzed and discussed since the financial crisis. The Fed has said it is ‘data dependent’, that economic conditions will determine its policy. That statement is untrue, or rather, it is true only at the extreme. If the U.S. unemployment rate was 7 percent or non-farm payrolls had averaged 100,000 for the past two years then data would indeed determine policy and there would be no rate hike. But that is not the case. American economic data can justify either a rate hike or a continuation of the zero policy. The Fed’s decision will not depend on data but on its view of the outcome. What are the likely effects of a 0.25% rate hike? How much of the effect has already been priced into equities, commodities, credit and currency markets? Will a single quarter point increase followed by a long hiatus have any appreciable impact? Do the distortions of zero rates outweigh the benefits? Join us for a unconventional view of the Federal Reserve decision.Latest Live Videos
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD eases to near 1.0700 ahead of German inflation data
EUR/USD is paring gains to near 1.0700 in the European session on Monday. The pair stays supported by a softer US Dollar, courtesy of the USD/JPY sell-off and a risk-friendly market environment. Germany's inflation data is next in focus.
USD/JPY recovers after testing 154.50 on likely Japanese intervention
USD/JPY is recovering ground after sliding to 154.50 on what seemed like a Japanese FX intervention. The Yen tumbled in early trades amid news that Japan's PM lost 3 key seats in the by-election. Focus shifts to the US employment data and the Fed decision later this week.
Gold price holds steady above $2,335, bulls seem reluctant amid reduced Fed rate cut bets
Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some buyers near the $2,320 area and turns positive for the third successive day on Monday, albeit the intraday uptick lacks bullish conviction.
Ripple CTO shares take on ETHgate controversy, XRP holders await SEC opposition brief filing
Ripple loses all gains from the past seven days, trading at $0.50 early on Monday. XRP holders have their eyes peeled for the Securities and Exchange Commission filing of opposition brief to Ripple’s motion to strike expert testimony.
Week ahead: FOMC and jobs data in sight
May kicks off with the Federal Open Market Committee meeting and will be one to watch, scheduled to make the airwaves on Wednesday. It’s pretty much a sealed deal for a no-change decision at this week’s meeting.