Summary
The more-than-clear hints about a rate hike on March have pushed the speculation to the next moves. The dollar strengthened quite a lot, corrected and then renewed its rise. Did it go too far? In a busy show we previewed the NFP and the hike implications, the ECB meeting and its impact on the euro, focused on the falling pound and discussed the next events.
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AUD/USD consolidates around 0.7100 as geopolitical risks counter hawkish RBA
AUD/USD remains confined within a multi-week-old range, oscillating around 0.7100 in the Asian session on Tuesday. Bets for another interest rate hike by the RBA in May continue to act as a tailwind for the Aussie. However, a hit to sentiment from US-Israeli air strikes against Iran helps the safe-haven US Dollar preserve its overnight strong gains, capping the upside in the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar.
Gold defends bids as US-Iran war continues to fuel safe-haven flows
Gold retains positive bias for the fifth consecutive day on Tuesday as rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to underpin safe-haven assets. However, a bullish US Dollar keeps the bullion below its highest level since late January, set on Monday, warranting caution before positioning for any further appreciation.
USD/JPY struggles below 157.50 amid intervention fears, risk aversion
USD/JPY stays defensive below the 157.50 and over a five-week high set on Monday as a dramatic escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continues to benefit the US Dollar's status as the global reserve currency. The Japanese Yen also benefits from a risk-off market scenario amid looming FX intervention fears, acting as a drag on the major.
Strategy lifts holdings to 3.4% of Bitcoin's total supply amid inflows into crypto products
Strategy continued its accumulation of the top crypto last week, acquiring 3,015 BTC for $204 million amid renewed interest in crypto products after four weeks of outflows.
The market is not panicking it is repricing the probability distribution of Oil and time
At the end of the day, markets do not trade morality or geopolitics. They trade transmission channels. And the only channel that truly matters in this maelstrom runs through the price of energy and the time value of money.
Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, March 3:
The United States, allied with Israel, struck Iran over the weekend, killing Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In retaliation, Iran launched missile and drone attacks targeting US military bases across several nations, with attacks from both parties still ongoing, fueling a geopolitical crisis.