Sergey Kamenshikov, Ph.D.
IFC Markets
Summary
Charles Dow postulates assume that a price of a trading instrument reflects all fundamental data instantly. However market efficiency may be preserved partially due to inertial properties. In this case a trader has to take into account related markets when opening a position: network effect arises. Below we represent a plain FX H4 trading system based on two currency indexes and classic ParabolicSAR indicator. After indexes are incorporated in a single platform a trader obtains an opportunity to analyze EUR/USD currency pair, EURi and vs USDi simultaneously at one screen and one time frame. A conservative trading idea is simple: EUR/USD long (short) position should be opened if EURi and vsUSDi give bullish (bearish) signals simultaneously. If inconsistency occurs and signals of two indexes differ then the opened position should be closed immediately. This strong signal shows us inefficient market stages when all players move as a whole. Our hypothesis is that this property may be used for effective trend following.Latest Live Videos
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD recovers modestly, stays below 1.1900
EUR/USD gains traction and edges higher toward 1.1900 in the second half of the day on Thursday. The US Dollar struggles to benefit from the upbeat employment data following an initial positive reaction, allowing the pair to find a foothold.
GBP/USD holds above 1.3600 after UK data dump
GBP/USD clings to moderate gains above 1.3600 following the release of the UK Q4 preliminary GDP, which showed that the UK economy expanded at an annual pave of 1% in Q4. Meanwhile, the improving risk mood causes the USD to lose interest and helps the pair edge higher.
Gold retreats from February highs, holds above $5,000
Gold corrects lower after touching a fresh February-high above $5,100 but manages to hold comfortably above $5,000. The positive shift seen in risk mood limits the safe-haven precious metal's strength, while the trading action remains choppy ahead of Friday's key US inflation data.
LayerZero Price Forecast: ZRO steadies as markets digest Zero blockchain announcement
LayerZero (ZRO) trades above $2.00 at press time on Thursday, holding steady after a 17% rebound the previous day, which aligned with the public announcement of the Zero blockchain and Cathie Wood joining the advisory board.
A tale of two labour markets: Headline strength masks underlying weakness
Undoubtedly, yesterday’s delayed US January jobs report delivered a strong headline – one that surpassed most estimates. However, optimism quickly faded amid sobering benchmark revisions.
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, February 12:
The US Dollar stays resilient against its rivals in the second half of the week, supported by the upbeat labor market data for January. The US economic calendar will feature weekly Initial Jobless Claims and January Existing Home Sales data on Thursday.