Traders want to trade. That’s what we feel is our job and that’s when we feel that we’re actually really doing something. And I think that’s why it can be so tough to go through periods of low trade frequency. It just somehow doesn’t feel right. Might be missing out on something. For sure the markets keep on moving and others are trading, right?
But feelings are often misleading, especially when it comes to trading. The fact is that to know when to not take a trade is as important as to know when to put on a trade and be active in the markets.
Mechanics of a Valid Trading Edge
Whatever approach you’re using to trade in the markets, there is always a time when that approach will actually not give you an advantage in the markets.
That’s why most trading systems have some kind of a market regime filter that defines when to actually follow a signal or not. That filter might measure volatility, check if there’s an up- or downtrend going on or look for periods where the market is not trending at all. Other kinds of filters are limiting trading to certain trading hours or specific weekdays or certain regular news events.
Without these filters, without these periods of standing on the sideline and not trading, it’s very hard to make money in the long run. As whatever money you’ve made during the time when the market was in sync with your trading style, you’ll probably give most of it back if you stubbornly keep on trading when the market is not. One exception that comes to my mind is long term trend following where you simply cannot afford to ever miss a trade and where filtering trades can be very expensive.
But in general, knowing when not to trade and then do exactly that is actually an edge. If you keep on trading all the time, you will on average lose money during these periods where you should not trade. And to avoid a losing trade is at the end of the day as good as having a winning trade. The only difference is that it just doesn’t feel that way. Taking a trade and making $1000 feels like you did something, you see that trade on your daily account statement. If you skip a losing trade, you might not even notice that you just saved yourself from a $1000 loss, and it actually doesn’t even show up in your trade history. Still, you now have $1000 more than you would have otherwise. So remember that and be patient during times of low trade frequency.
Happy Trading!
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD trades with negative bias, holds above 1.0700 as traders await US PCE Price Index
EUR/USD edges lower during the Asian session on Friday and moves away from a two-week high, around the 1.0740 area touched the previous day. Spot prices trade around the 1.0725-1.0720 region and remain at the mercy of the US Dollar price dynamics ahead of the crucial US data.
GBP/USD trades on a softer note below 1.2530 ahead of US PCE data
GBP/USD trades on a weaker note around 1.2502 during the early Asian trading hours on Friday. The modest rebound of the US Dollar weighs on the major pair despite weaker US GDP growth numbers. The US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index data on Friday will be in the spotlight.
USD/JPY jumps above 156.00 on BoJ's steady policy
USD/JPY has come under intense buying pressure, surging past 156.00 after the Bank of Japan kept the key rate unchanged but tweaked its policy statement. The BoJ maintained its fiscal year 2024 and 2025 core inflation forecasts, disappointing the Japanese Yen buyers.
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD trades with negative bias, holds above 1.0700 as traders await US PCE Price Index
EUR/USD edges lower during the Asian session on Friday and moves away from a two-week high, around the 1.0740 area touched the previous day. Spot prices trade around the 1.0725-1.0720 region and remain at the mercy of the US Dollar price dynamics ahead of the crucial US data.
USD/JPY jumps above 156.00 on BoJ's steady policy
USD/JPY has come under intense buying pressure, surging past 156.00 after the Bank of Japan kept the key rate unchanged but tweaked its policy statement. The BoJ maintained its fiscal year 2024 and 2025 core inflation forecasts, disappointing the Japanese Yen buyers.
Gold price flatlines as traders look to US PCE Price Index for some meaningful impetus
Gold price lacks any firm intraday direction and is influenced by a combination of diverging forces. The weaker US GDP print and a rise in US inflation benefit the metal amid subdued USD demand. Hawkish Fed expectations cap the upside as traders await the release of the US PCE Price Index.
Sei Price Prediction: SEI is in the zone of interest after a 10% leap
Sei price has been in recovery mode for almost ten days now, following a fall of almost 65% beginning in mid-March. While the SEI bulls continue to show strength, the uptrend could prove premature as massive bearish sentiment hovers above the altcoin’s price.
US economy: Slower growth with stronger inflation
The US Dollar strengthened, and stocks fell after statistical data from the US. The focus was on the preliminary estimate of GDP for the first quarter. Annualised quarterly growth came in at just 1.6%, down from the 2.5% and 3.4% previously forecast.
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