Elliott Wave Forecast Team
ElliottWave-Forecast.com
If you’re new to Elliott Wave, you may be asking: How do I tell if a wave is over when there’s so much price movement? One tool, in addition to trendlines, is to use Relative Strength Index (RSI).
Relative strength index
The relative strength index (RSI) is a momentum indicator used in technical analysis. RSI measures the speed and magnitude of a security’s recent price changes to evaluate overvalued or undervalued conditions in the price of that security.
The RSI is displayed as an oscillator (a line graph) on a scale of zero to 100. The indicator was developed by J. Welles Wilder Jr. and introduced in his seminal 1978 book, New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems.
The RSI can do more than point to overbought and oversold securities. It can also indicate securities that may be primed for a trend reversal or corrective pullback in price. It can signal when to buy and sell. Traditionally, an RSI reading of 70 or above indicates an overbought situation. A reading of 30 or below indicates an oversold condition.
Here is what RSI looks like:
RSI swinging from 70 and 30
How to use RSI
We can use RSI’s movements up and down to identify waves by paying attention to the trends within it like so:
Waves moving with RSI
Clearly, in the above picture, you can see how RSI trends with price, and even proceeds it when breaking trend lines. You may be able to use these trend lines to tell when one wave ends and another begins. The key here is to draw your lines off of as many supporting lows as you can. Most lines here have 2-3 tests and encompass an entire downtrend. RSI trends are composed on higher highs, and higher lows, but downtrends are composed of lower lows, and lower highs.
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Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD drops to daily lows near 1.1630
EUR/USD now loses some traction and slips back to the area of daily lows around 1.1630 on the back of a mild bounce in the US Dollar. Fresh US data, including the September PCE inflation numbers and the latest read on December consumer sentiment, didn’t really move the needle, so the pair is still on course to finish the week with a respectable gain.
GBP/USD trims gains, recedes toward 1.3320
GBP/USD is struggling to keep its daily advance, coming under fresh pressure and retreating to the 1.3320 zone following a mild bullish attempt in the Greenback. Even though US consumer sentiment surprised to the upside, the US Dollar isn’t getting much love, as traders are far more interested in what the Fed will say next week.
Japanese Yen refreshes three-week high vs USD; seems poised to appreciate further
The Japanese Yen retains bullish bias as BoJ rate hike bets offset dismal Household Spending data. Dovish Fed expectations fail to assist the USD in attracting buyers and keep a lid on the USD/JPY pair. Traders keenly await the US PCE Price Index for Fed rate-cut cues and a fresh directional impetus.
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD drops to daily lows near 1.1630
EUR/USD now loses some traction and slips back to the area of daily lows around 1.1630 on the back of a mild bounce in the US Dollar. Fresh US data, including the September PCE inflation numbers and the latest read on December consumer sentiment, didn’t really move the needle, so the pair is still on course to finish the week with a respectable gain.
GBP/USD trims gains, recedes toward 1.3320
GBP/USD is struggling to keep its daily advance, coming under fresh pressure and retreating to the 1.3320 zone following a mild bullish attempt in the Greenback. Even though US consumer sentiment surprised to the upside, the US Dollar isn’t getting much love, as traders are far more interested in what the Fed will say next week.
Gold makes a U-turn, back to $4,200
Gold is now losing the grip and receding to the key $4,200 region per troy ounce following some signs of life in the Greenback and a marked bounce in US Treasury yields across the board. The positive outlook for the precious metal, however, remains underpinned by steady bets for extra easing by the Fed.
Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP pare gains despite increasing hopes of upcoming Fed rate cut
Bitcoin is steadying above $91,000 at the time of writing on Friday. Ethereum remains above $3,100, reflecting positive sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy meeting on December 10.
Week ahead – Rate cut or market shock? The Fed decides
Fed rate cut widely expected; dot plot and overall meeting rhetoric also matter. Risk appetite is supported by Fed rate cut expectations; cryptos show signs of life. RBA, BoC and SNB also meet; chances of surprises are relatively low.
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