The beta coefficient is a statistical measure that can be used to compare different items.
The idea of using the beta coefficient is common among stock analysts trying to find those stocks that are moving differently to the main market average. This has a number of benefits, not least that stocks with higher beta coefficients offer a greater level of diversification than those with lower beta coefficients.
A stock with a low beta coefficient will be unlikely to outperform the overall market, whereas a stock with a high beta coefficient could move in a completely different direction. Some stocks with a high beta may even move in the opposite direction to the average, allowing them to survive market downturns.
In stocks, this beta can be measured with the following calculation:
Beta (x) = Slope of stock x / Slope of market average
In other words, if a stock increases in value by 14% while the market average increased by only 10%, the stock's beta would be 1.4. Generally, those markets with higher beta's can be said to offer better risk/reward.
Stock markets generally move higher over time, corresponding with economic growth and the act of buy and hold investing.
Conversely, forex markets fluctuate, where the simultaneous buying of one currency reflects the selling of another.
The upshot of this is that there is no point in calculating beta in forex by comparing one market to the slope of the market average.
A much better idea is to construct a market average of currencies, making sure to adjust them for their dollar values, then compare them by standard deviation.
By calculating beta in this way, it is possible to find the currencies that are trading with the highest volatility compared to the rest. In this way:
Beta (EURUSD) = StdDev (EURUSD) / StdDev (market average)
Of course, beta will not stay constant over time, and currencies with a high beta may not continue to be more volatile than the average in the future. This means that high beta currencies may not necessarily be the best ones to trade and it could be the case that the lowest betas might be the best.
Any strategy based on beta will therefore need to be tested to ensure that it works profitably. That is the nature of trading.
The idea of using the beta coefficient is common among stock analysts trying to find those stocks that are moving differently to the main market average. This has a number of benefits, not least that stocks with higher beta coefficients offer a greater level of diversification than those with lower beta coefficients.
A stock with a low beta coefficient will be unlikely to outperform the overall market, whereas a stock with a high beta coefficient could move in a completely different direction. Some stocks with a high beta may even move in the opposite direction to the average, allowing them to survive market downturns.
In stocks, this beta can be measured with the following calculation:
Beta (x) = Slope of stock x / Slope of market average
In other words, if a stock increases in value by 14% while the market average increased by only 10%, the stock's beta would be 1.4. Generally, those markets with higher beta's can be said to offer better risk/reward.
Using beta in forex
While beta is commonly used in stocks, it is rarely used in forex and for a very good reason. Simply, because forex markets are valued against one another, they do not possess any upward bias, like stock markets do.Stock markets generally move higher over time, corresponding with economic growth and the act of buy and hold investing.
Conversely, forex markets fluctuate, where the simultaneous buying of one currency reflects the selling of another.
The upshot of this is that there is no point in calculating beta in forex by comparing one market to the slope of the market average.
A much better idea is to construct a market average of currencies, making sure to adjust them for their dollar values, then compare them by standard deviation.
By calculating beta in this way, it is possible to find the currencies that are trading with the highest volatility compared to the rest. In this way:
Beta (EURUSD) = StdDev (EURUSD) / StdDev (market average)
Results
Calculating beta in this way, shows how currencies relate to each other in terms of volatility. Those currencies with a high beta are the most volatile and these are the best ones to trade since they offer the best risk/reward.Of course, beta will not stay constant over time, and currencies with a high beta may not continue to be more volatile than the average in the future. This means that high beta currencies may not necessarily be the best ones to trade and it could be the case that the lowest betas might be the best.
Any strategy based on beta will therefore need to be tested to ensure that it works profitably. That is the nature of trading.
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD remains weak near 1.1800
EUR/USD remains on the back foot on Thursday, trading close to the 1.1800 support ahead of the opening bell in Asia. The pair’s pullback comes amid further gains in the Greenback, while investors keep assessing the ECB’s decision to leave its policy rates unchanged
GBP/USD falls to new lows near 1.3530
GBP/USD extends Wednesday’s pullback on Thursday, easing lower towards two week lows around the 1.3530 area. Ongoing strength in the Greenback and the dovish hold from the BoE at its earlier meeting are keeping demand for the British Pound on the defensive for now.
Japanese Yen hangs near two-week low vs. firmer USD; USD/JPY bulls target 157.00 breakout
The Japanese Yen extends its sideways consolidative price move against a broadly firmer US Dollar and currently trades near a two-week low, touched earlier this Thursday. Investors remain worried about Japan's financial health on the back of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's expansionary fiscal plans. This, along with political uncertainty ahead of the snap election on February 8, has been another bearish development for the JPY and contributes to its relative underperformance.
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD remains offered below 0.7000
Broad based selling across risk sensitive assets is weighing on the Australian Dollar on Thursday, with AUD/USD adding to Wednesday’s pullback and slipping back the key 0.7000 handle as the US Dollar extends its advance. Looking ahead, the next domestic focus in Australia will be the Household Spending figures on February 9.
EUR/USD remains weak near 1.1800
EUR/USD remains on the back foot on Thursday, trading close to the 1.1800 support ahead of the opening bell in Asia. The pair’s pullback comes amid further gains in the Greenback, while investors keep assessing the ECB’s decision to leave its policy rates unchanged
Gold fails to sustain gains above $5,000 for third consecutive day
Gold is back under pressure on Thursday, slipping back towards the $4,800 region per troy ounce. A firmer US Dollar is weighing on the yellow metal, even as the broader mood remains risk off. That said, falling US Treasury yields across the curve are helping to cushion the downside and, for now at least, are limiting the depth of the pullback.
Strategy's Bitcoin treasury in focus as MSTR crashes alongside crypto market
Strategy (MSTR), the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin (BTC), is in focus ahead of its earnings call on Thursday amid an intensifying crypto market sell-off. Also caught in the headwinds is the MSTR stock, trading at $114 at the time of writing, down over 12% intraday.
The AI mirror just turned on tech and nobody likes the reflection
Tech just got hit with a different kind of selloff. Not the usual rates tantrum, not a recession whisper, not even an earnings miss in the classic sense. This was the market staring into an AI mirror and recoiling at its reflection.
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