USDCAD Big Selloff and Analysis
by: Colibri Trader
I have been doing my regular Sunday research and analysis and my attention stopped on the USDCAD pair.
I remember watching it in Friday just before the jobs report came out. Price was flirting with a major resistance area at 1.2900 and I was asking myself the question if it will break out or reverse.
The jobs report came out and Canadian jobs gained jumped by 79.5%. The unemployment rate fell below 6 and now it stands at 5.9%. The GDP report was also positive and it all boded well for the Canadian economy.
How did this reflect on the USDCAD?
USDCAD dropped more than 200 pips. It is a pretty phenomenal drop and it also coincided with the resistance level at 1.2900.
Pure coincidence or a price action confirmation, traders on both sides of the technical and fundamental approach are seeing the bearish implications.
What is to follow?
From here, I am seeing two possible scenarios.
Scenario 1
Price continues the fall sharply and reaches for the next support level at 1.2425.
Scenario 2
Price retraces back to around 1.2800 and then continues its fall towards the next support level.
A third scenario is also possible where price retraces back to where it fell from. Although a very likely scenario based on the economic data, it is something we should not exclude from questioning, since every scenario is as good as the next one.
What I am waiting for…
I am waiting for a retracement back to the 1.2750 area and then I will be looking for a price rejection and a bearish signal.
I believe that after such a quick drop we are bound to see at least a small correction before the bearish move is reignited.
The daily price action candle is a very strong bearish engulfing. The last 4 days of bullish candles are engulfed by a single red candle. From a weekly chart perspective, this gives us a very strong bearish rejection candle.
All in all, the negative bias is reaffirmed and this big USDCAD selloff is definitely going to have major implications in the following sessions to come.
Happy Sunday,
Colibri Trader
This material is written for educational purposes only. By no means do any of its contents recommend, advocate or urge the buying, selling or holding of any financial instrument whatsoever. Trading and Investing involves high levels of risk. The author expresses personal opinions and will not assume any responsibility whatsoever for the actions of the reader. The author may or may not have positions in Financial Instruments discussed in this newsletter. Future results can be dramatically different from the opinions expressed herein. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD trims gains, hovers around 1.1900 post-US data
EUR/USD trades slightly on the back foot around the 1.1900 region in a context dominated by the resurgence of some buying interest around the US Dollar on turnaround Tuesday. Looking at the US docket, Retail Sales disappointed expectations in December, while the ADP 4-Week Average came in at 6.5K.
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The better tone in the Greenback hurts the risk-linked complex on Tuesday, prompting GBP/USD to set aside two consecutive days of gains and trade slightly on the defensive below the 1.3700 mark. Investors, in the meantime, keep their attention on key UK data due later in the week.
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