Headlines like these need to be put into perspective:
- “US registers its biggest one-day rise since 1933”.
- “Global markets fall 12%, their biggest one-day loss since the 1987 flash”.
- “Markets slashed, Markets surge”.
- "$187 billion dollars wiped from markets” etc.
These kinds of headlines make us look straight to one indicator – volatility. Why? Because understanding ‘vol’ as traders in these times is vital to your trading and risk management.
First off, we need to understand how the VIX index can tell us the daily implied move.
Without diving too far into statistics and modelling, the daily implied move can be worked out by the square root of time. i.e. the square root of 252 days (the amount of trading days in a year) which is 15.8.
From there, divide the VIX index by 15.8 –so when the VIX maxed out at 82 last week, the implied move in the S&P 500 was +/- 5.2%.
It’s important to acknowledge that volatility does not recognise direction, it can’t tell you that. But clearly rampant vol. is due to mass increases in put buying, which is caused by high levels of market selling. So, for most of the time, the market is likely to fall in high bouts of vol.
This information can give you a base to understand your trading risk and price ranges.
Again, using the idea above, the implied daily range, with a VIX of 82, is 10.4% (+5.2% or -5.2%), which we have seen in intraday trading. Think back to Friday the 13th, the ASX initially fell over 4.7% then rallied back and closed up over 4.4%.
In understanding vol., you understand your trade risk. And in understanding your risk, you can make more informed trading decisions.
This information has been prepared by Mitrade. In addition to the disclaimer below, Mitrade does not represent that the information provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore should not be relied upon as such. This information does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Mitrade is not a financial advisor and all services are provided on an execution only basis. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Reproduction or redistribution of this information is not permitted.
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD remains below 1.1750 ahead of ECB policy decision
EUR/USD remains on the back foot below 1.1750 in the European session on Thursday. Traders move to the sidelines and refrain from placing any fresh directional bets on the pair ahead of the ECB policy announcements and the US CPI inflation data.
GBP/USD stays defensive below 1.3400, awaits BoE and US CPI
GBP/USD oscillates in a narrow band below 1.3400 in European trading on Thursday. The pair trades with caution as markets eagerly await the BoE policy verdict and US consumer inflation data for fresh directional impetus.
Japanese Yen languishes near weekly low against USD; focus remains on BoJ policy update
The Japanese Yen trades with a negative bias against the recovering US Dollar for the second straight day, pushing the USD/JPY pair closer to the 156.00 mark or the weekly top. In the absence of any fundamental catalyst, the downtick could be attributed to some repositioning trade ahead of the crucial Bank of Japan policy update on Friday.
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD remains below 1.1750 ahead of ECB policy decision
EUR/USD remains on the back foot below 1.1750 in the European session on Thursday. Traders move to the sidelines and refrain from placing any fresh directional bets on the pair ahead of the ECB policy announcements and the US CPI inflation data.
GBP/USD stays defensive below 1.3400, awaits BoE and US CPI
GBP/USD oscillates in a narrow band below 1.3400 in European trading on Thursday. The pair trades with caution as markets eagerly await the BoE policy verdict and US consumer inflation data for fresh directional impetus.
Gold holds losses below $4,350 ahead of US CPI report
Gold struggles to capitalize on the previous day's move higher and holds its pullback below $4,350 in the European session on Thursday. The downtick could be attributed to some profit-taking amid a US Dollar bounce. All eyes now remain on the US CPI inflation data.
BoE set to resume easing cycle, trimming interest rate to 3.75%
The Bank of England will announce its last monetary policy decision of 2025 on Thursday at 12:00 GMT. The market prices a 25-basis-point rate cut, which would leave the BoE’s Bank Rate at 3.75%.
US CPI data expected to show inflation rose slightly to 3.1%, cooling Fed rate cut bets for January
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the all-important Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November on Thursday at 13:30 GMT. The CPI inflation in the US is expected to rise at an annual rate of 3.1% in November
RECOMMENDED LESSONS
Making money in forex is easy if you know how the bankers trade!
I’m often mystified in my educational forex articles why so many traders struggle to make consistent money out of forex trading. The answer has more to do with what they don’t know than what they do know. After working in investment banks for 20 years many of which were as a Chief trader its second knowledge how to extract cash out of the market.
5 Forex News Events You Need To Know
In the fast moving world of currency markets where huge moves can seemingly come from nowhere, it is extremely important for new traders to learn about the various economic indicators and forex news events and releases that shape the markets. Indeed, quickly getting a handle on which data to look out for, what it means, and how to trade it can see new traders quickly become far more profitable and sets up the road to long term success.
Top 10 Chart Patterns Every Trader Should Know
Chart patterns are one of the most effective trading tools for a trader. They are pure price-action, and form on the basis of underlying buying and selling pressure. Chart patterns have a proven track-record, and traders use them to identify continuation or reversal signals, to open positions and identify price targets.
7 Ways to Avoid Forex Scams
The forex industry is recently seeing more and more scams. Here are 7 ways to avoid losing your money in such scams: Forex scams are becoming frequent. Michael Greenberg reports on luxurious expenses, including a submarine bought from the money taken from forex traders. Here’s another report of a forex fraud. So, how can we avoid falling in such forex scams?
What Are the 10 Fatal Mistakes Traders Make
Trading is exciting. Trading is hard. Trading is extremely hard. Some say that it takes more than 10,000 hours to master. Others believe that trading is the way to quick riches. They might be both wrong. What is important to know that no matter how experienced you are, mistakes will be part of the trading process.
The challenge: Timing the market and trader psychology
Successful trading often comes down to timing – entering and exiting trades at the right moments. Yet timing the market is notoriously difficult, largely because human psychology can derail even the best plans. Two powerful emotions in particular – fear and greed – tend to drive trading decisions off course.