Whether we like it or not, our actions are programed and directed by our belief system. We all want to believe we make choices completely of our own free will, having complete control of our choices. The truth is however, our belief system, which has been developed over many years, controls our thoughts which drive our actions. Whether we’re successful in trading, or anything else we take on, depends on whether our belief system drives actions that lead to success. Can we change our belief system? Sure, but it’s not an easy task for most. It all begins with understanding who we are and why we do what we do.
Moves in markets are a result of mass psychology (belief systems). We make money in the markets by being masters of human psychology and supply and demand. Winning in the markets is as defined as much by our mental make-up as it is by our trading or investing style.
This being the case, what’s more important than chart reading is first understanding our own belief systems. Next time you’re struggling to achieve the results you want, instead of focusing on changing your actions, take notice of where those actions come from. Moving backward, one step at a time, trace your actions back to the behavioral patterns they stem from, and then to the origin of those behavioral patterns, your beliefs. It’s at the level of beliefs (thoughts) that decisions are made, and moreover, where your ability to differentiate reality from illusion lies. If you want different results, then it’s time to start considering where your beliefs about what works and what doesn’t in trading and investing comes from.
In life, which includes trading and investing, most of us tend to repeat the same processes over and over, expecting a different result. During my many years in the financial world I’ve noticed some very clear differences between the consistently profitable trader and investor and the novice. They are:
The Novice
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Tends to follow the herd
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Avoids taking risk unless others are sharing the risk as well
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Feels that if others are buying then it is ok for them to buy too
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Acts on the advice of so called experts
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Tends to complicate the financial markets and ignore the important simplicity of markets
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Tends to make the same two mistakes; they buy and sell after a move in price is well underway (late and high risk) and they buy into price levels where the smart money is selling.
The Consistently Profitable
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Leads instead of following the herd. They can identify opportunity before others.
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Tunes out all the subjective noise that can get in the way of making proper buy and sell decisions. They don’t care what others are doing and make decisions based on a very mechanical and unemotional set of criteria based solely on the laws and principles of supply and demand.
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Learns to identify the proper low risk entry that most people never see
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Buys after a period of selling and into demand (wholesale prices). They buy fear.
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Sell after a period of buying and into supply (retail prices). They sell greed.
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They have the ability to clearly identify whether a bank or retail trader/investor is on the other side of their transaction in any market and any time frame.
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They have a rule-based strategy that quantifies real demand (wholesale price) and supply (retail price) in any market and time frame.
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They play the bandwagon correctly instead of getting played by the bandwagon. Meaning, they know how other market participants think and react when they are correct and, more importantly, when they are wrong. Price patterns are thought patterns.
One of the most important things to understand about proper trading and investing is that conventional visible confirmation and low risk opportunity are completely inversely related. This is why those who know what they are doing get paid from those who don’t, that’s how markets work.
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Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD holds firm above 1.1900 as US NFP looms
EUR/USD holds its upbeat momentum above 1.1900 in the European trading hours on Wednesday, helped by a broadly weaker US Dollar. Markets could turn cautious later in the day as the delayed US employment report for January will takes center stage.
USD/JPY remains heavy around 153.00 on firmer Japanese Yen
USD/JPY is sustaining its three-day rout at around 153.00 in the European session on Wednesday, awaiting the closely-watched US NFP report. Rising bets on Fed rate cuts keep the US Dollar depressed. In contrast, expectations that PM Takaichi's policies will boost the economy and allow the BoJ to stick to its hawkish stance bolster the Japanese Yen, weighing on the pair amid intervention fears.
Gold sticks to gains near $5,050 as focus shifts to US NFP
Gold holds moderate gains near the $5,050 level in the European session on Wednesday, reversing a part of the previous day's modest losses amid dovish US Federal Reserve-inspired US Dollar weakness. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal ahead of the critical US NFP release.
US Nonfarm Payrolls expected to show modest job gains in January
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the delayed Nonfarm Payrolls data for January on Wednesday at 13:30 GMT. Investors expect NFP to rise by 70K following the 50K increase recorded in December.
S&P 500 at 7,000 is a valuation test, not a liquidity problem
The rebound from last week’s drawdown never quite shook the sense that it was being supported by borrowed conviction. The S&P 500 once again tested near the 7,000 level (6,986 as the high watermark) and failed, despite a macro backdrop that would normally be interpreted as supportive of risk.
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