Brandon Wendell, CMT
Brandon Wendell
Have you ever been shaken out of a trade only to see the price move in your favor once you were out of the position? Did it seem like the institutions attached a camera to your computer to see where you entered and exited so they could trade against you? Obviously, this is not what happened but it is frustrating nonetheless.
What happened is that you likely thought and traded like a retail trader. Retail traders tend to buy stocks AFTER the price has risen and sell AFTER they have dropped. In essence, they have been chasing price and only catching it when the momentum exhausts.
Look at the following chart of EBay. You can see that the largest green candle happens to be associated with the highest volume in the move upward as well.
This is a case where the novice traders got greedy and chased price as it was rising. It is funny that people do this as we wouldn’t think of paying a markup for everyday things we purchase in life. Most of these same investors and traders seek out sales or bargains on everything from toothpaste to cars to furniture. But when they deal with the markets, that common sense becomes less common.
The professionals know that novices like to chase price and they will trap you or take advantage of your naiveté when you trade the way all of the other retail traders do. In BBBY, you can see the increase in volume as the novice trader’s jump into the stock as price breaks out to new highs.
The novices jumping into the markets are often signaled by a large candle in the direction of the trend accompanied with high volume. This is a regular occurrence and offers an opportunity for the institution.
This is a case where the novice traders got greedy and chased price as it was rising. It is funny that people do this as we wouldn’t think of paying a markup for everyday things we purchase in life. Most of these same investors and traders seek out sales or bargains on everything from toothpaste to cars to furniture. But when they deal with the markets, that common sense becomes less common.
The professionals know that novices like to chase price and they will trap you or take advantage of your naiveté when you trade the way all of the other retail traders do. In BBBY, you can see the increase in volume as the novice trader’s jump into the stock as price breaks out to new highs.
The novices jumping into the markets are often signaled by a large candle in the direction of the trend accompanied with high volume. This is a regular occurrence and offers an opportunity for the institution.
Neither Freedom Management Partners nor any of its personnel are registered broker-dealers or investment advisers. I will mention that I consider certain securities or positions to be good candidates for the types of strategies we are discussing or illustrating. Because I consider the securities or positions appropriate to the discussion or for illustration purposes does not mean that I am telling you to trade the strategies or securities. Keep in mind that we are not providing you with recommendations or personalized advice about your trading activities. The information we are providing is not tailored to any individual. Any mention of a particular security is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that or any other security or a suggestion that it is suitable for any specific person. Keep in mind that all trading involves a risk of loss, and this will always be the situation, regardless of whether we are discussing strategies that are intended to limit risk. Also, Freedom Management Partners’ personnel are not subject to trading restrictions. I and others at Freedom Management Partners could have a position in a security or initiate a position in a security at any time.
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD: US Dollar to remain pressured until uncertainty fog dissipates
Unimpressive European Central Bank left monetary policy unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting. The United States first-tier employment and inflation data is scheduled for the second week of February. EUR/USD battles to remain afloat above 1.1800, sellers moving to the sidelines.
GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above
GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.
USD/JPY drops back below 157.00 on Japan's verbal intervention
USD/JPY has come under moderate selling pressure below 157.00 in the Asian session on Monday. The Japanese Yen lost ground to near 157.70 following Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party's outright majority win in Sunday’s lower house election, opening the door to more fiscal stimulus by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. However, JPY buyers jumped back and dragged the pair southward on FX verbal intervention by Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama.
Editors’ Picks
USD/JPY drops back below 157.00 on Japan's verbal intervention
USD/JPY has come under moderate selling pressure below 157.00 in the Asian session on Monday. The Japanese Yen lost ground to near 157.70 following Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party's outright majority win in Sunday’s lower house election, opening the door to more fiscal stimulus by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. However, JPY buyers jumped back and dragged the pair southward on FX verbal intervention by Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama.
Gold jumps above $5,000 as China's gold buying drives demand
Gold price rises to near $5,035 during the early Asian session on Monday. The precious metal extends its recovery amid a weaker US Dollar and rising demand from central banks. The delayed release of the US employment report for January will be in the spotlight later on Wednesday.
AUD/USD: Buyers eyes 0.7050 amid upveat mood
AUD/USD builds on Friday's goodish rebound from sub-0.6900 levels and kicks off the new week on a positive note, with bulls awaiting a sustained move and acceptance above mid-0.7000s before placing fresh bets. The widening RBA-Fed divergence, along with the upbeat market mood, acts as a tailwind for the risk-sensitive Aussie amid some follow-through US Dollar selling for the second straight day.
Week ahead: US NFP and CPI data to shake Fed cut bets, Japan election looms
US NFP and CPI data awaited after Warsh’s nomination as Fed chief. Yen traders lock gaze on Sunday’s snap election. UK and Eurozone Q4 GDP data also on the agenda. China CPI and PPI could reveal more weakness in domestic demand.
Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election Premium
The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.
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