Market movers today

  • Overall, we believe that PMI figures for the euro area for September due for release today will show a moderate improvement, reflecting an ongoing recovery. The order-inventory balance for the manufacturing PMI showed a promising increase in August, signalling an increase in manufacturing PMI in September despite a moderate decline in figures for August. However, we believe services PMIs have a more sluggish outlook for September.

  • In the US, Markit and ISM PMIs declined in August but are sending mixed signals on the manufacturing sector. Most notably, the ISM index declined 3.2 index points and is now back below the 50 threshold again, suggesting a contraction in the manufacturing sector. We estimate the Markit PMI manufacturing index declined to 50.5 in September.

  • Iran and Saudi Arabia are set to continue talks in Vienna. The two are trying to work out their differences in order for OPEC and Russia along with possibly also other major oil producing countries to agree on a strategy to stabilise the oil market next week in Algiers.

  • We are due to publish updated quarterly forecasts for the Nordic economies in our Nordic Outlook at 9:00 CET. The Outlook will not contain any new financial forecasts.

 

Selected market news

As expected, Norges Bank (NB) yesterday left the sight deposit rate unchanged at 0.50%. The revised rate path suggests a 40% probability of a later rate cut, which was very close to our expectations. Meanwhile, NB signalled that the bottom in the revised rate path is first reached in Q2 17, which was less aggressive than we had pencilled in. Also, the rhetoric in the Monetary Policy Report (MPR) was more hawkish than expected, highlighting the Board’s move towards a ‘neutral’ bias. Specifically, NB stated that ‘the outlook suggests that the key policy rate will most likely remain at today’s level in the period ahead” and that “…the forecast implies a slightly higher probability of a decrease than an increase in the key policy rate in the year ahead’. Prior to the decision, markets had priced in around a 5-10% probability of a rate cut today. Post the decision, short-term rates have risen with markets pricing out the likelihood of a 2017 cut. As expected, EUR/NOK initially dropped on the announcement but the more hawkishthan- expected rhetoric also meant that we did not get the expected rebound in the cross. Given our economic forecasts and NB’s gradual move towards a ‘neutral’ bias today, we expect NB to leave the sight deposit rate unchanged throughout 2017.

Yesterday, Saudi Arabia and Iran met in Vienna to discuss possible ways to stabilise the oil market ahead of the producers meeting in Algiers next week. In April, talks over a deal to freeze production failed because Iran refused to corporate. However, since then, Iran has been able to push its crude production back up the level it was at before sanctions were imposed on Iran in 2012 – sanctions that were removed in January this year. Hence, Iran may be more inclined to agree to freeze production. Nevertheless, an agreement to freeze production would not achieve more than to preserve status quo in the oil market.

Download The Full Daily FX Market Commentary


This publication has been prepared by Danske Bank for information purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on it. Danske Bank, its affiliates or staff, may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned herein. Danske Bank's research analysts are not permitted to invest in securities under coverage in their research sector.
This publication is not intended for private customers in the UK or any person in the US. Danske Bank A/S is regulated by the FSA for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.
Copyright () Danske Bank A/S. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission.

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD tumbles to new lows near 1.1650

EUR/USD tumbles to new lows near 1.1650

The selling pressure on the EUR/USD now gathers extra steam and sends the pair to the 1.1650 zone, or two-week lows on Thursday.  The surprisingly good weekly readings from the US employment market statistics, coupled with hawkish remarks from the Fed’s Musalem, boost the US Dollar and put the risk complex under further strain.

GBP/USD deflates to two-week lows near 1.3530

GBP/USD deflates to two-week lows near 1.3530

GBP/USD is under further downside pressure, falling into the 1.3530 zone on the back of the stronger Greenback and the broad-based cautious stance in the market. Solid US data and supportive Fedspeak allows the US Dollar to pick up further pace, weighing down on the risk-associated universe.

Japanese Yen flat lines against USD amid mixed cues; bearish bias seems intact

Japanese Yen flat lines against USD amid mixed cues; bearish bias seems intact

The Japanese Yen attracts some intraday sellers and stalls its recovery from a two-week low against USD. Trade jitters keep investors on edge and help limit deeper losses for the safe-haven JPY, capping USD/JPY. Expectations that the Fed will cut rates in 2025 weigh on the USD and also act as a headwind for the pair.


Editors’ Picks

Bitcoin reaches new record highs past $112,000

Bitcoin reaches new record highs past $112,000

Bitcoin derivatives data shows a positive outlook, with CoinGlass BTC's Open Interest rising by 8.07% to $79.45 billion, close to its May 23 record high. This indicates more money entering the market and new purchasing, potentially fueling the BTC price surge. 

EUR/USD tumbles to new lows near 1.1650

EUR/USD tumbles to new lows near 1.1650

The selling pressure on the EUR/USD now gathers extra steam and sends the pair to the 1.1650 zone, or two-week lows on Thursday.  The surprisingly good weekly readings from the US employment market statistics, coupled with hawkish remarks from the Fed’s Musalem, boost the US Dollar and put the risk complex under further strain.

Gold price retains its positive bias amid a broadly weaker USD; lacks bullish conviction

Gold price retains its positive bias amid a broadly weaker USD; lacks bullish conviction

Gold price trades with a mild positive for the second straight day on Thursday, though it lacks follow-through and remains below the $3,350 level through the early European session. Reports that US President Donald Trump was considering replacing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell raised concerns over the future independence of the US central bank.

Bitcoin Cash targets 52-week high as on-chain data indicate room for growth

Bitcoin Cash targets 52-week high as on-chain data indicate room for growth

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) is trading in the green by 2% at press time on Thursday, following a 6.39% price surge on Wednesday. Rising in a parallel channel pattern, BCH shows signs of increasing bullish momentum and nearing the $500 psychological level.

Could Iran block the Strait of Hormuz? Why Oil is on edge after US strikes

Could Iran block the Strait of Hormuz? Why Oil is on edge after US strikes

As the Israel-Iran conflict reaches new heights, an old threat is coming back to haunt the markets: that of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow arm of the sea in the Persian Gulf, wedged between Iran to the north and the United Arab Emirates and Oman to the south, is much more than a simple sea passage.

RECOMMENDED LESSONS

5 Forex News Events You Need To Know

In the fast moving world of currency markets where huge moves can seemingly come from nowhere, it is extremely important for new traders to learn about the various economic indicators and forex news events and releases that shape the markets. Indeed, quickly getting a handle on which data to look out for, what it means, and how to trade it can see new traders quickly become far more profitable and sets up the road to long term success.

Top 10 Chart Patterns Every Trader Should Know

Chart patterns are one of the most effective trading tools for a trader. They are pure price-action, and form on the basis of underlying buying and selling pressure. Chart patterns have a proven track-record, and traders use them to identify continuation or reversal signals, to open positions and identify price targets.

7 Ways to Avoid Forex Scams

The forex industry is recently seeing more and more scams. Here are 7 ways to avoid losing your money in such scams: Forex scams are becoming frequent. Michael Greenberg reports on luxurious expenses, including a submarine bought from the money taken from forex traders. Here’s another report of a forex fraud. So, how can we avoid falling in such forex scams?

What Are the 10 Fatal Mistakes Traders Make

Trading is exciting. Trading is hard. Trading is extremely hard. Some say that it takes more than 10,000 hours to master. Others believe that trading is the way to quick riches. They might be both wrong. What is important to know that no matter how experienced you are, mistakes will be part of the trading process.

Strategy

Money Management

Psychology

Best Brokers of 2025