This article written by Arne and Falk Elsner was originally published in the March 2014 issue of Traders' Magazine.
- Arne and Falk Elsner have specialised in the main liquid markets and have been working for years with optimised trading systems on the short- and medium-term time levels. Professional trading and individual coaching are the two brothers’ core competencies
The principle of intermarket analysis is based on the interplay between the four major asset classes: bonds, stocks, commodities, and currencies. By reading the “language of the markets”, the intermarket model provides a suitable analytical basis for effective trading. Besides an introduction to “intermarkets”, this article offers concrete applications for trading and ways of optimising existing trading strategies. Based on the “crossover“ strategy, the possibilities offered by intermarket analysis as a logical trading filter will be presented.
I. Introduction to Intermarket Analysis
Intermarket analysis is all about the global capital flows in financial markets. The bond, stock, currency, and commodity markets are interrelated. If one of these markets is in an uptrend, this will have an impact on all the other markets. Intermarket analysis helps the trader tap into these very capital market flows. The multi-market approach presented below makes it possible for over and undervaluations to be recognised, providing insights into the expected market development. The past has shown that developments in the financial markets repeat themselves in similar market conditions. It is these fundamental interactions that intermarket analysis is based on. Those who understand the language of the markets will gain a better understanding of the future direction of capital market flows.
Combining Intermarkets with the Market and Business Cycles
The economy develops in a cyclical sequence of expansions and contractions. This constant change is called an economic or business cycle. It can be perfectly harmonised with the intermarket model. The market cycle relevant to traders precedes the business cycle since it is the future that is traded on the stock market. Figure 2 shows the idealised performance of the market cycle with the high and low points of the stock market.
The Stock Market Cycle Is a Harbinger of Highs and Lows
The market cycle can be divided into several stages during which the fundamental parameters on the financial markets change and new trend directions emerge. Important factors in this interplay include interest-rate developments, currency trends, the level of bond yields, and inflationary tendencies. They are the kind of fertile ground for whatever developments occur in the financial markets and these are reflected in the price charts. The occurrence and succession of distinctive performance highs and lows in the price charts of the bond, stock, currency, and commodity markets offer the intermarket analyst orientation and forecasting possibilities.
The information in TRADERS´ is intended for educational purposes only. It is not meant to recommend, promote or in any way imply the effectiveness of any trading system, strategy or approach. Traders are advised to do their own research and testing to determine the validity of a trading idea. Trading and investing carry a high level of risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD trades above 1.0700 after EU inflation data
EUR/USD regained its traction and climbed above 1.0700 in the European session. Eurostat reported that the annual Core HICP inflation edged lower to 2.7% in April from 2.9% in March. This reading came in above the market expectation of 2.6% and supported the Euro.
GBP/USD recovers to 1.2550 despite US Dollar strength
GBP/USD is recovering losses to trade near 1.2550 in the European session on Tuesday. The pair rebounds despite a cautious risk tone and broad US Dollar strength. The focus now stays on the mid-tier US data amid a data-light UK docket.
Gold price remains depressed near $2,320 amid stronger USD, ahead of US macro data
Gold price (XAU/USD) remains depressed heading into the European session on Tuesday and is currently placed near the lower end of its daily range, just above the $2,320 level.
XRP hovers above $0.51 as Ripple motion to strike new expert materials receives SEC response
Ripple (XRP) trades broadly sideways on Tuesday after closing above $0.51 on Monday as the payment firm’s legal battle against the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) persists.
Mixed earnings for Europe as battle against inflation in UK takes step forward
Corporate updates are dominating this morning after HSBC’s earnings report contained the surprise news that its CEO is stepping down after 5 years in the job. However, HSBC’s share price is rising this morning and is higher by nearly 2%.
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