Jamie Saettele, CMT
Scandinavian Capital Markets
Late April / early May action in NZDUSD has been absolutely textbook in terms of ‘original slope’ trading. Here’s how we followed it in real-time.
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Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD holds losses near 1.1850 as US, China holidays keep trade muted
EUR/USD opens the week on a softer note, trading near 1.1860 during the Asian session on Monday. Activity is likely to remain muted, with United States markets closed for the Presidents’ Day holiday, while Mainland China is also shut for the week-long Lunar New Year break.
GBP/USD flat lines as traders await key UK macro data and FOMC minutes
The GBP/USD pair kicks off a new week on a subdued note and oscillates in a narrow range, just below mid-1.3600s, during the Asian session. Moreover, the mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution for aggressive traders as the market focus now shifts to this week's important releases from the UK and the US.
USD/JPY retakes 153.00 after Japan's weak Q4 GDP print
USD/JPY kicks off the new week on a positive note as Japan's weak Q4 GDP growth tempers bets for an immediate BoJ rate hike and undermines the Japanese Yen. Investors, however, seem convinced that the BoJ will stick to its policy normalization path amid hopes that PM Takaichi's policies will boost the Japanese economy. In contrast, cooling US consumer inflation reaffirmed bets for more Fed rate cuts in 2026, which acts as a headwind for the US Dollar and should cap the currency pair.
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD remains close to three-year top amid the Fed-RBA divergence
AUD/USD attracts some dip-buyers near mid-0.7000s during the Asian session on Monday, stalling last week's modest pullback from a three-year peak. The US Dollar continues with its struggle to attract any meaningful buyers amid bets for further rate cuts by the Fed, bolstered by the softer US CPI report on Friday. In contrast, the Australian Dollar retains a bullish bias on the back of the RBA's hawkish stance, which further acts as a tailwind for the currency pair.
USD/JPY retakes 153.00 after Japan's weak Q4 GDP print
USD/JPY kicks off the new week on a positive note as Japan's weak Q4 GDP growth tempers bets for an immediate BoJ rate hike and undermines the Japanese Yen. Investors, however, seem convinced that the BoJ will stick to its policy normalization path amid hopes that PM Takaichi's policies will boost the Japanese economy. In contrast, cooling US consumer inflation reaffirmed bets for more Fed rate cuts in 2026, which acts as a headwind for the US Dollar and should cap the currency pair.
Gold remains below $5,050 despite Fed rate cut bets, uncertain geopolitical tensions
Gold edges lower after registering over 2% gains in the previous session, trading around $5,030 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Monday. However, the non-interest-bearing Gold could further gain ground following softer January Consumer Price Index figures, which reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut rates later this year.
Week ahead: Data blitz, Fed Minutes and RBNZ decision in the spotlight
The US jobs report for January, which was delayed slightly, didn’t do the dovish Fed bets any favours, as expectations of a soft print did not materialize, confounding the raft of weak job indicators seen in the prior week.
Global inflation watch: Signs of cooling services inflation
Realized inflation landed close to expectations in January, as negative base effects weighed on the annual rates. Remaining sticky inflation is largely explained by services, while tariff-driven goods inflation remains limited even in the US.
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