It's-all-too-common

It's a universal experience. You feel personally attacked or demoralised when it happens, correct?

The good news is there's a solution, which I'll share in a minute. But first, knowing the issue is key to understanding the solution.

Lost on traders is:
Trading is
not waiting for a pattern or setup to appear to enter the market—that's amateur hour.

Instead:
Imagine you're a detective solving a crime. You start by gathering evidence and—like a puzzle—putting the pieces together to form a plausible thesis.

The same applies to trading. But instead of solving a crime, you're solving:

  • Who's going to move the price?
  • Why will they move the price?
  • Where will they move the price to?
 
What do you notice about the questions above? They're focused on the actions of human beings, and for good reason.
 
If not familiar, the Medallion fund is famed for the best record in investing history.

It's a fund that trades using computer-programmed models. Founder Jim Simons revealed:

"We don't want to predict price, but we want to predict when other market participants are going to do something."

Cycles, sectors, technology, and market activities are always changing, which is why trading strategies have short shelf lives.

The only approach built to last is rooted in human behaviour because human beings don't change.

 

But what about playbook trades?

Let me explain:

You did or still travel the same route to and from work.

But ignoring the time they take, there are alternative routes you can choose.

Price takes different routes from one price level to another regularly. Each signature trade is a map of a one of the routes price can take.

If and when the market starts agreeing with your thesis, choose the signature trade matching the current route.

Now you have accurate directions to trade your thesis. Make sense?

 

A note on human behaviour:


You can pay experts on human behaviour who'll tell you everything there is to know about:

  • Unconscious bias,
  • What happens at a brain-chemical level and,
  • How it impacts decision-making.

But ask them to show you all the different ways it's expressed in the markets, and it's... crickets.

Yet the footage below is your front-row seat to a trading approach rooted in human behaviour.

Human beings don't change, so these principles have always been effective and will continue to be so in the future.

Now's the perfect time to cement your understanding of how effective trading is when based on human behaviour with the 3 minute demonstration below.
 

 


Forex and derivatives trading is a highly competitive and often extremely fast-paced environment. It only rewards individuals who attain the required level of skill and expertise to compete. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is a substantial risk of loss to unskilled and inexperienced players. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD climbs to daily highs, targets 1.1200

EUR/USD climbs to daily highs, targets 1.1200

EUR/USD extended its intraday rebound to the 1.1180 zone, or daily highs, on Tuesday, as the US Dollar remains on the back foot while investors keep digesting the softer-than-expected April inflation data and the recent US-China trade deal.

GBP/USD picks up pace and retests 1.3300

GBP/USD picks up pace and retests 1.3300

GBP/USD resumes its uptyrend on Tuesday and reclaims the 1.3300 barrier and beyond, propped up by broad-based weakness in the US Dollar. The Dollar’s decline accelerated after lower-than-estimated US inflation readings in April, reinforcing expectations of a patient Federal Reserve.

USD/JPY steadies as BoJ stays hawkish amid US tariff uncertainty, breakout above 148.50 eyed

USD/JPY steadies as BoJ stays hawkish amid US tariff uncertainty, breakout above 148.50 eyed

USD/JPY trades flat on Tuesday after surging nearly 2% in the previous day, supported by a stronger US Dollar on easing trade tensions. BoJ signals commitment to gradual rate hikes, viewing US tariffs as short-term disruptions with limited impact on long-term inflation. Technically, the pair faces resistance at 148.65, with key support at the 50 EMA and downside risk toward 145.00 and 142.00.


Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD climbs to daily highs, targets 1.1200

EUR/USD climbs to daily highs, targets 1.1200

EUR/USD extended its intraday rebound to the 1.1180 zone, or daily highs, on Tuesday, as the US Dollar remains on the back foot while investors keep digesting the softer-than-expected April inflation data and the recent US-China trade deal.

GBP/USD picks up pace and retests 1.3300

GBP/USD picks up pace and retests 1.3300

GBP/USD resumes its uptyrend on Tuesday and reclaims the 1.3300 barrier and beyond, propped up by broad-based weakness in the US Dollar. The Dollar’s decline accelerated after lower-than-estimated US inflation readings in April, reinforcing expectations of a patient Federal Reserve.

Gold sticks to daily gains around $3,250

Gold sticks to daily gains around $3,250

Gold prices pared some of their early-week losses and hovered near $3,250 on Tuesday afternoon, supported by a cautious market tone and softer-than-expected US April CPI data, which helped XAU/USD stabilise.

UnitedHealth stock craters as CEO resigns, insurer suspends guidance

UnitedHealth stock craters as CEO resigns, insurer suspends guidance Premium

UnitedHealth Group stock slumped 10.4% in Tuesday's premarket after the United States' largest private health insurer said it would suspend guidance for 2025 due to increasing healthcare costs. The sell-off sent shares down to a more than four-year low near $340.

US-China trade truce only emphasizes timeless investing truths

US-China trade truce only emphasizes timeless investing truths

Markets roared back to life as the US and China hit pause on their escalating trade war, with both sides emphasizing mutual respect and dignity. But it wasn’t the fine print that moved markets—it was the mood shift. Investors rushed back into risk assets, betting that the worst might be behind us.

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