It's-all-too-common
It's a universal experience. You feel personally attacked or demoralised when it happens, correct?
The good news is there's a solution, which I'll share in a minute. But first, knowing the issue is key to understanding the solution.
Lost on traders is:
Trading is not waiting for a pattern or setup to appear to enter the market—that's amateur hour.
Instead:
Imagine you're a detective solving a crime. You start by gathering evidence and—like a puzzle—putting the pieces together to form a plausible thesis.
The same applies to trading. But instead of solving a crime, you're solving:
- Who's going to move the price?
- Why will they move the price?
- Where will they move the price to?
It's a fund that trades using computer-programmed models. Founder Jim Simons revealed:
"We don't want to predict price, but we want to predict when other market participants are going to do something."
Cycles, sectors, technology, and market activities are always changing, which is why trading strategies have short shelf lives.
The only approach built to last is rooted in human behaviour because human beings don't change.
But what about playbook trades?
Let me explain:
You did or still travel the same route to and from work.
But ignoring the time they take, there are alternative routes you can choose.
Price takes different routes from one price level to another regularly. Each signature trade is a map of a one of the routes price can take.
If and when the market starts agreeing with your thesis, choose the signature trade matching the current route.
Now you have accurate directions to trade your thesis. Make sense?
A note on human behaviour:
You can pay experts on human behaviour who'll tell you everything there is to know about:
- Unconscious bias,
- What happens at a brain-chemical level and,
- How it impacts decision-making.
But ask them to show you all the different ways it's expressed in the markets, and it's... crickets.
Yet the footage below is your front-row seat to a trading approach rooted in human behaviour.
Human beings don't change, so these principles have always been effective and will continue to be so in the future.
Now's the perfect time to cement your understanding of how effective trading is when based on human behaviour with the 3 minute demonstration below.
Forex and derivatives trading is a highly competitive and often extremely fast-paced environment. It only rewards individuals who attain the required level of skill and expertise to compete. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is a substantial risk of loss to unskilled and inexperienced players. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD clings to recovery gains above 0.6150 after Chinese trade data
AUD/USD is finding its feet in the Asian session on Monday, holding recovery above 0.6150 from over four-year troughs. China's pro-growth measures and strong Chinese December trade data underpin the Aussie amid a broadly risk-averse market environment and persistent US Dollar strength.
USD/JPY remains pressured near 157.00 amid risk aversion
USD/JPY stays pressured near 157.50 early Monday, having reversed from near 158.00 region in the last hours. Risk-off sentiment on hawkish Fed expectations and US economic resilience weigh on markets, reviving the safe-haven appeal of the Japanese Yen amid looming BoJ rate hike risks.
Gold: Buyers face exhaustion below $2,700
Gold price trades with mild losses near $2,690 on the stronger US Dollar in the Asian session on Monday. However, the safe-haven demand due to uncertainty surrounding the President-elect Donald Trump administration's policies might help limit the Gold’s losses.
Week ahead: US CPI and China GDP in focus, UK data eyed too as Pound skids
US inflation report to take centre stage as Dollar remains well bid. China’s economic policies to come under scrutiny as Q4 GDP on tap. UK CPI and GDP figures to be watched as Pound’s pain worsens.
Think ahead: Mixed inflation data
Core CPI data from the US next week could ease concerns about prolonged elevated inflation while in Central and Eastern Europe, inflation readings look set to remain high.
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