Fundamental Bias to improve the Odds in Forex trading


Share:
This article written by José M Piñeiro was originally published in the September 2013 issue of Traders' Magazine.

  • Jose M Piñeiro started in the forex industry in 2002 as an Operations Specialist and then Compliance Offi cer for FXCM in New York when the online retail forex market was still getting off the ground and expanding rapidly. He has spent the last seven years working for Web Financial Group (WFG), based in Madrid. He is now forex analyst for WFG’s forex website, fxmania.com.

Traders often underestimate the importance of personal interpretation of economic data in order to come up with a forex trading strategy. Without undermining the potential effectiveness of trading signals and automated trading, a trader’s personal intuitiveness and insight ‘beyond the numbers’ will ultimately make the difference between a successful and a bad forex trader. After all, if a particular trading strategy or a set of trading signals were absolutely effective, then everybody would be a successful trader. If such a successful trading strategy exists, it must be a very well-kept secret. Therefore, how do we improve our odds in forex trading?

First, Understand the Market

To start, forex traders should take a good look at currency trading symbols. Unlike stock symbols, for instance, there is an inherent meaning in the way currencies are quoted. Let’s take a look at the USD/ JPY, where the US dollar is the base currency and the Japanese yen is the counter currency. The symbol helps traders realise that there is a bi-dimensional relationship in every transaction. This is not so obvious in any other market. 

In all transactions, there is a purchase of one item and a simultaneous sale of another item. The ‘USD/ JPY’ symbol shows that someone is buying US dollars and someone is selling Japanese yen or vice-versa. This relationship is not so evident when traders buy shares of Apple. The stock is not listed as APP/USD although traders are buying or selling Apple shares in exchange for US dollars. 

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD holds positive ground above 1.0700, eyes on German CPI data

EUR/USD holds positive ground above 1.0700, eyes on German CPI data

EUR/USD trades on a stronger note around 1.0710 during the early Monday. The weaker US Dollar below the 106.00 mark provides some support to the major pair. All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, with no change in rate expected. 

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD holds positive ground above 1.2500 on weaker US Dollar, Fed rate decision looms

GBP/USD holds positive ground above 1.2500 on weaker US Dollar, Fed rate decision looms

The GBP/USD pair holds positive ground near 1.2520 on Monday during the early Asian session. The uptick of the major pair is supported by the softer US Dollar below the 106.00 psychological mark. Investors will closely monitor the Federal Open Market Committee interest rate decision and Press Conference on Wednesday. 

GBP/USD News

USD/JPY recovers 156.00 after testing 155.50 on likely Japanese intervention

USD/JPY recovers 156.00 after testing 155.50 on likely Japanese intervention

USD/JPY has recovered some ground above 156.00 after crashing to 155.00 on what seemed like a Japanese FX intervention. The Yen tumbled in early trades amid news that Japan's PM lost 3 key seats in the by-election. Holiday-thinned trading exaggerates the USD/JPY price action. 

USD/JPY News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD holds positive ground above 1.0700, eyes on German CPI data

EUR/USD holds positive ground above 1.0700, eyes on German CPI data

EUR/USD trades on a stronger note around 1.0710 during the early Monday. The weaker US Dollar below the 106.00 mark provides some support to the major pair. All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, with no change in rate expected. 

EUR/USD News

USD/JPY recovers 156.00 after testing 155.50 on likely Japanese intervention

USD/JPY recovers 156.00 after testing 155.50 on likely Japanese intervention

USD/JPY has recovered some ground above 156.00 after crashing to 155.00 on what seemed like a Japanese FX intervention. The Yen tumbled in early trades amid news that Japan's PM lost 3 key seats in the by-election. Holiday-thinned trading exaggerates the USD/JPY price action. 

USD/JPY News

Gold tests critical daily support line, will it defend?

Gold tests critical daily support line, will it defend?

Gold price is seeing a negative start to a new week on Monday, having booked a weekly loss. Gold price bears the brunt of resurgent US Dollar (USD) demand and a risk-on market mood amid Japanese holiday-thinned market conditions.

Gold News

XRP plunges to $0.50, wipes out recent gains as Ripple community debates ETHgate impact

XRP plunges to $0.50, wipes out recent gains as Ripple community debates ETHgate impact

Ripple loses all gains from the past seven days, trading at $0.50 early on Monday. XRP holders have their eyes peeled for the Securities and Exchange Commission filing of opposition brief to Ripple’s motion to strike expert testimony. 

Read more

Week ahead: Hawkish risk as Fed and NFP on tap, Eurozone data eyed too

Week ahead: Hawkish risk as Fed and NFP on tap, Eurozone data eyed too

Fed meets on Wednesday as US inflation stays elevated. Will Friday’s jobs report bring relief or more angst for the markets? Eurozone flash GDP and CPI numbers in focus for the Euro.

Read more

RECOMMENDED LESSONS

7 Ways to Avoid Forex Scams

The forex industry is recently seeing more and more scams. Here are 7 ways to avoid losing your money in such scams: Forex scams are becoming frequent. Michael Greenberg reports on luxurious expenses, including a submarine bought from the money taken from forex traders. Here’s another report of a forex fraud. So, how can we avoid falling in such forex scams?

What Are the 10 Fatal Mistakes Traders Make

Trading is exciting. Trading is hard. Trading is extremely hard. Some say that it takes more than 10,000 hours to master. Others believe that trading is the way to quick riches. They might be both wrong. What is important to know that no matter how experienced you are, mistakes will be part of the trading process.

Strategy

Money Management

Psychology