This article written by José M Piñeiro was originally published in the September 2013 issue of Traders' Magazine.
Traders often underestimate the importance of personal interpretation of economic data in order to come up with a forex trading strategy. Without undermining the potential effectiveness of trading signals and automated trading, a trader’s personal intuitiveness and insight ‘beyond the numbers’ will ultimately make the difference between a successful and a bad forex trader. After all, if a particular trading strategy or a set of trading signals were absolutely effective, then everybody would be a successful trader. If such a successful trading strategy exists, it must be a very well-kept secret. Therefore, how do we improve our odds in forex trading?
- Jose M Piñeiro started in the forex industry in 2002 as an Operations Specialist and then Compliance Offi cer for FXCM in New York when the online retail forex market was still getting off the ground and expanding rapidly. He has spent the last seven years working for Web Financial Group (WFG), based in Madrid. He is now forex analyst for WFG’s forex website, fxmania.com.
Traders often underestimate the importance of personal interpretation of economic data in order to come up with a forex trading strategy. Without undermining the potential effectiveness of trading signals and automated trading, a trader’s personal intuitiveness and insight ‘beyond the numbers’ will ultimately make the difference between a successful and a bad forex trader. After all, if a particular trading strategy or a set of trading signals were absolutely effective, then everybody would be a successful trader. If such a successful trading strategy exists, it must be a very well-kept secret. Therefore, how do we improve our odds in forex trading?
First, Understand the Market
To start, forex traders should take a good look at currency trading symbols. Unlike stock symbols, for instance, there is an inherent meaning in the way currencies are quoted. Let’s take a look at the USD/ JPY, where the US dollar is the base currency and the Japanese yen is the counter currency. The symbol helps traders realise that there is a bi-dimensional relationship in every transaction. This is not so obvious in any other market.
In all transactions, there is a purchase of one item and a simultaneous sale of another item. The ‘USD/ JPY’ symbol shows that someone is buying US dollars and someone is selling Japanese yen or vice-versa. This relationship is not so evident when traders buy shares of Apple. The stock is not listed as APP/USD although traders are buying or selling Apple shares in exchange for US dollars.
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD flirts with daily highs, retargets 1.1900
EUR/USD regains upside traction, returning to the 1.1880 zone and refocusing its attention to the key 1.1900 barrier. The pair’s slight gains comes against the backdrop of a humble decline in the US Dollar as investors continue to assess the latest US CPI readings and the potential Fed’s rate path.
GBP/USD remains well bid around 1.3650
GBP/USD maintains its upside momentum in place, hovering around daily highs near 1.3650 and setting aside part of the recent three-day drop. Cable’s improved sentiment comes on the back of the Greenback’s irresolute price action, while recent hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill also collaborate with the uptick.
USD/JPY retakes 153.00 after Japan's weak Q4 GDP print
USD/JPY kicks off the new week on a positive note as Japan's weak Q4 GDP growth tempers bets for an immediate BoJ rate hike and undermines the Japanese Yen. Investors, however, seem convinced that the BoJ will stick to its policy normalization path amid hopes that PM Takaichi's policies will boost the Japanese economy. In contrast, cooling US consumer inflation reaffirmed bets for more Fed rate cuts in 2026, which acts as a headwind for the US Dollar and should cap the currency pair.
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD remains close to three-year top amid the Fed-RBA divergence
AUD/USD attracts some dip-buyers near mid-0.7000s during the Asian session on Monday, stalling last week's modest pullback from a three-year peak. The US Dollar continues with its struggle to attract any meaningful buyers amid bets for further rate cuts by the Fed, bolstered by the softer US CPI report on Friday. In contrast, the Australian Dollar retains a bullish bias on the back of the RBA's hawkish stance, which further acts as a tailwind for the currency pair.
USD/JPY retakes 153.00 after Japan's weak Q4 GDP print
USD/JPY kicks off the new week on a positive note as Japan's weak Q4 GDP growth tempers bets for an immediate BoJ rate hike and undermines the Japanese Yen. Investors, however, seem convinced that the BoJ will stick to its policy normalization path amid hopes that PM Takaichi's policies will boost the Japanese economy. In contrast, cooling US consumer inflation reaffirmed bets for more Fed rate cuts in 2026, which acts as a headwind for the US Dollar and should cap the currency pair.
Gold holds above $5,000 as bears seem hesitant amid Fed rate cut bets
Gold edges lower at the start of a new week, though it defends the $5,000 psychological mark through the Asian session. The underlying bullish sentiment is seen acting as a headwind for the bullion. However, bets for more rate cuts by the Fed, bolstered by Friday's softer US CPI, keep the US Dollar bulls on the defensive and continue to support the non-yielding yellow metal as the focus now shifts to FOMC Minutes on Wednesday.
Week ahead: Data blitz, Fed Minutes and RBNZ decision in the spotlight
The US jobs report for January, which was delayed slightly, didn’t do the dovish Fed bets any favours, as expectations of a soft print did not materialize, confounding the raft of weak job indicators seen in the prior week.
Global inflation watch: Signs of cooling services inflation
Realized inflation landed close to expectations in January, as negative base effects weighed on the annual rates. Remaining sticky inflation is largely explained by services, while tariff-driven goods inflation remains limited even in the US.
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