I’d like to share an indicator I came up with that I found very useful over the years. It’s actually a very simple one but it proved itself against over and over again against much more complicated indicators that try to do the same thing. I surely wouldn’t want to miss it.
Here’s the formula: abs(open-close)/(high-low) * 100
Which gives us a value between 0 and 100 that measures the actual price change of a single price bar (absolute value of open-close) against the whole price bars range (high-low). Or in Candlestick charting language: measures the size of the candle body against the whole candle including the wicks.
Let’s look at a price chart to make this more clear:
The blue bars are showing the Daily BarStrength of Gold for each of the price bars/candles. Below you can find a 5 period EMA of that BarStrength. Notice that huge green candles that open nearby the low and close nearby the high show a high BarStrength score (50+) while candles that close near the open have a very low score.
So what you might wonder. Well here’s the interesting part: Notice that quite often you’ll get a strong price bar/candle after a weak one and the other way around. To highlight this I’ve plotted a horizontal line at 33.
The same is true on a larger scale looking at the moving average below. When it’s showing low values, meaning there’s been hardly any real price change in Gold for a couple of days, there’s a tendency for big moves to happen afterward.
I’ve found this to be true in many markets, Gold is just an example. While this works in principle on any timeframe, it’s most effective on higher timeframes like daily and weekly charts.
The BarStrength indicator doesn’t show you in which direction the market will move. But knowing when a market is more likely to make a big move than not can make a really huge difference in your trading results. This is why I like to use this as a filter for breakout strategies, like ORB (opening range breakout) strategies for example.
Happy Trading!
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD holds firm near 1.1850 amid USD weakness
EUR/USD remains strongly bid around 1.1850 in European trading on Monday. The USD/JPY slide-led broad US Dollar weakness helps the pair build on Friday's recovery ahead of the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence data for February.
GBP/USD holds medium-term bullish bias above 1.3600
The GBP/USD pair trades on a softer note around 1.3605 during the early European session on Monday. Growing expectation of the Bank of England’s interest-rate cut weighs on the Pound Sterling against the Greenback.
USD/JPY falls further toward 156.00 as intervention risks dominate
The Japanese Yen is looking to build on its strong intraday move up amid speculations that authorities will step in to stem weakness in the domestic currency. In fact, Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stepped up intervention warnings and confirmed close coordination with the US against disorderly FX moves. This, along with some follow-through US Dollar selling, triggers an intraday USD/JPY turnaround from the 157.65 region, touched in reaction to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's landslide win in Sunday's election.
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD holds firm near 1.1850 amid USD weakness
EUR/USD remains strongly bid around 1.1850 in European trading on Monday. The USD/JPY slide-led broad US Dollar weakness helps the pair build on Friday's recovery ahead of the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence data for February.
USD/JPY falls further toward 156.00 as intervention risks dominate
The Japanese Yen is looking to build on its strong intraday move up amid speculations that authorities will step in to stem weakness in the domestic currency. In fact, Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stepped up intervention warnings and confirmed close coordination with the US against disorderly FX moves. This, along with some follow-through US Dollar selling, triggers an intraday USD/JPY turnaround from the 157.65 region, touched in reaction to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's landslide win in Sunday's election.
Gold remains supported by China's buying and USD weakness as traders eye US data
Gold struggles to capitalize on its intraday move up and remains below the $5,100 mark heading into the European session amid mixed cues. Data released over the weekend showed that the People's Bank of China extended its buying spree for a 15th month in January. Moreover, dovish US Fed expectations and concerns about the central bank's independence drag the US Dollar lower for the second straight day, providing an additional boost to the non-yielding yellow metal.
Cardano steadies as whale selling caps recovery
Cardano (ADA) steadies at $0.27 at the time of writing on Monday after slipping more than 5% in the previous week. On-chain data indicate a bearish trend, with certain whales offloading ADA. However, the technical outlook suggests bearish momentum is weakening, raising the possibility of a short-term relief rebound if buying interest picks up.
Japan's Takaichi secures historic victory in snap election
In Japan, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's coalition secured a supermajority in the lower house, winning 328 out of 465 seats following a rare winter snap election. This provides her with a strong mandate to advance her legislative agenda.
RECOMMENDED LESSONS
Making money in forex is easy if you know how the bankers trade!
I’m often mystified in my educational forex articles why so many traders struggle to make consistent money out of forex trading. The answer has more to do with what they don’t know than what they do know. After working in investment banks for 20 years many of which were as a Chief trader its second knowledge how to extract cash out of the market.
5 Forex News Events You Need To Know
In the fast moving world of currency markets where huge moves can seemingly come from nowhere, it is extremely important for new traders to learn about the various economic indicators and forex news events and releases that shape the markets. Indeed, quickly getting a handle on which data to look out for, what it means, and how to trade it can see new traders quickly become far more profitable and sets up the road to long term success.
Top 10 Chart Patterns Every Trader Should Know
Chart patterns are one of the most effective trading tools for a trader. They are pure price-action, and form on the basis of underlying buying and selling pressure. Chart patterns have a proven track-record, and traders use them to identify continuation or reversal signals, to open positions and identify price targets.
7 Ways to Avoid Forex Scams
The forex industry is recently seeing more and more scams. Here are 7 ways to avoid losing your money in such scams: Forex scams are becoming frequent. Michael Greenberg reports on luxurious expenses, including a submarine bought from the money taken from forex traders. Here’s another report of a forex fraud. So, how can we avoid falling in such forex scams?
What Are the 10 Fatal Mistakes Traders Make
Trading is exciting. Trading is hard. Trading is extremely hard. Some say that it takes more than 10,000 hours to master. Others believe that trading is the way to quick riches. They might be both wrong. What is important to know that no matter how experienced you are, mistakes will be part of the trading process.
The challenge: Timing the market and trader psychology
Successful trading often comes down to timing – entering and exiting trades at the right moments. Yet timing the market is notoriously difficult, largely because human psychology can derail even the best plans. Two powerful emotions in particular – fear and greed – tend to drive trading decisions off course.