One of the first things that new traders to the FX markets learn is that many currencies are correlated with other markets. For instance, the close relationship between oil and the Canadian dollar or certain metals and the Australian dollar are intuitive given the importance of exporting those commodities for the Canadian and Australian economies.

One strong, but less obvious, correlation is the tight connection between AUD/JPY and global stock markets. In this case, the factor linking the two seemingly-disparate markets is investors’ risk appetite. When market participants are feeling optimistic about global economic growth, they tend to buy stocks at the expense of more conservative investments such as bonds.

A similar dynamic takes place in the FX market, where upbeat traders will buy higher-yielding currencies with underlying economies leveraged to global economic growth (e.g. the Australian and New Zealand dollars) and sell lower-yielding currencies with relatively stable economies (e.g. the Japanese yen and Swiss franc). Conversely, when traders are apprehensive about the potential for global economic growth, they tend to unwind those trades by selling the higher-yielding currencies and buying perceived safe havens. This is the essence of the so-called “carry trade,” a major short- and long-term driver of FX movements.

This strong correlation offers traders several actionable insights. Most straightforwardly, if a trader feels strongly that the broad stock market is due to fall or rise, he/she could use AUD/JPY to express that view in a highly liquid, 24-hour market that offers the potential for leverage. Alternatively, traders can watch for divergences between the S&P 500 and AUD/JPY as a sign that one (or both) of the markets is vulnerable to a reversal.

We saw that exact scenario in Q3 2018, when the S&P 500 rallied to new highs, while AUD/JPY continued to languish. The divergence indicated that stock traders should be more skeptical toward the rally in the S&P 500, and sure enough, the index came unwound months’ worth of a gains in a couple of weeks in October. Such divergences can emerge over longer time horizons given the upward tendency of stock investments, they can still provide valuable signals to short-term and swing traders.

This research is for informational purposes and should not be construed as personal advice. Trading any financial market involves risk. Trading on leverage involves risk of losses greater than deposits.

Education feed

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD bouncing modestly on disappointing US Consumer Confidence

The shared currency remains pressured by the idea that the ECB will come out with massive stimulus measures in September. US Michigan Consumer Confidence down to 92.1 brakes dollar's gains.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD retreats sharply after approaching 1.2200

The GBP/USD pair came under selling pressure after flirting with weekly highs, as a dismal US confidence report brought back risk-off. GBP/USD still up for the week and above the critical 1.2100 level.

GBP/USD News

USD/JPY: Greenback makes modest progress against Yen, near 106.30

The demand for Yen as a safe-haven currency has been weak in the last three days. The levels to beat for bulls are at the 106.30 and 106.55 resistances.

USD/JPY News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD bouncing modestly on disappointing US Consumer Confidence

The shared currency remains pressured by the idea that the ECB will come out with massive stimulus measures in September. US Michigan Consumer Confidence down to 92.1 brakes dollar's gains.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD retreats sharply after approaching 1.2200

The GBP/USD pair came under selling pressure after flirting with weekly highs, as a dismal US confidence report brought back risk-off. GBP/USD still up for the week and above the critical 1.2100 level.

GBP/USD News

USD/JPY: Greenback makes modest progress against Yen, near 106.30

The demand for Yen as a safe-haven currency has been weak in the last three days. The levels to beat for bulls are at the 106.30 and 106.55 resistances.

USD/JPY News

Four Signs of A Bear Market

I am a believer that the Universe gives you signs. That may sound a bit crazy, but these three charts are three more signs of a bear market. The top chart is the GLD exchange traded fund.

Read more

Gold gives back territory towards a 23.6% retracement

Gold prices were a touch lower by the end of the week, falling -0.68% having travelled between a high of $1,528.00 to a low of $1,503.87, ending the NY session around $1,513. 

Gold News

RECOMMENDED LESSONS

7 Ways to Avoid Forex Scams

The forex industry is recently seeing more and more scams. Here are 7 ways to avoid losing your money in such scams: Forex scams are becoming frequent. Michael Greenberg reports on luxurious expenses, including a submarine bought from the money taken from forex traders. Here’s another report of a forex fraud. So, how can we avoid falling in such forex scams?

What Are the 10 Fatal Mistakes Traders Make

Trading is exciting. Trading is hard. Trading is extremely hard. Some say that it takes more than 10,000 hours to master. Others believe that trading is the way to quick riches. They might be both wrong. What is important to know that no matter how experienced you are, mistakes will be part of the trading process.

Strategy

Money Management

Psychology