EUR/USD Forecast and News
EUR/USD turns south toward 1.1500 amid Middle East escalation
EUR/USD erases gains to turn lower toward 1.1500 in the European trading hours on Monday. Persistent geopolitical flare-ups weigh on the pair, while reviving the haven demand for the US dollar. Weak German Factory Orders data also exerts bearish pressure on the pair ahead of the Eurozone Sentix data.
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EUR/USD Technical Overview
From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair is holding above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the April-May downfall. Adding to this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 58 and a slightly positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading hints at improving momentum. This, in turn, backs the case for a further intraday appreciating move, though hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) bets could limit USD losses and cap spot prices.
Hence, any subsequent move up is more likely to confront an immediate hurdle near the 38.2% Fibo. level, around the 1.1675-1.1680 region. This is followed by the 1.1710 confluence, comprising the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 50% retracement. The said area should keep the near-term bias capped, above which the EUR/USD pair could target the 61.8% level around 1.1740 and the 78.6% retracement at 1.1785 en route to the cycle high at 1.1842.
On the downside, immediate support is located at the 23.6% retracement at 1.1638, with a deeper floor at the Fibonacci structural anchor around 1.1574, where a break would reopen the broader bearish phase.
Fundamental Overview
Eurozone headline inflation climbed to 3.2% in May, marking its highest level in over two and a half years. Furthermore, core inflation accelerated to 2.5%, and services inflation rose to 3.5%, a clear indication that price pressures are broadening significantly beyond the volatile energy sector.
The EUR/USD pair holds losses as the US Dollar (USD) flatlines amid market caution ahead of the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for fresh direction. Present projections indicate that the US economy added 85,000 jobs in May, with the Unemployment Rate expected to hold steady at 4.3%.
Traders adopt caution due to a complex web of developments surrounding a potential US-Iran peace agreement to end recent hostilities. Tensions remain highly elevated following warnings from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who declared that the strategic Strait of Hormuz falls within Iranian and Omani territorial waters and asserted that US regional military bases are active targets for retaliation.
US President Donald Trump offered an optimistic outlook early Wednesday, stating that Iran is close to signing a peace framework and that a breakthrough could occur over the weekend. Adding to the regional complexity, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz affirmed on Thursday that Israel will sustain military operations in Lebanon despite a ceasefire, preventing displaced residents from returning.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly EUR/USD forecast? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Euro-US Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
EUR/USD: US Dollar meant to keep rallying despite expected ECB hike Premium
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Editors' picks
EUR/USD turns south toward 1.1500 amid Middle East escalation
EUR/USD erases gains to turn lower toward 1.1500 in the European trading hours on Monday. Persistent geopolitical flare-ups weigh on the pair, while reviving the haven demand for the US dollar. Weak German Factory Orders data also exerts bearish pressure on the pair ahead of the Eurozone Sentix data.
GBP/USD holds losses below 1.3350 amid renewed Gulf conflict
GBP/USD trades with mild losses below 1.3350 in European trading on Monday. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East and rising bets of a US interest rate hike provide some support to the US Dollar against the British Pound.
Gold stays vulnerable near $4,300 on Mideast woes, Fed rate hike bets
Gold remains vulnerable near $4,300 in early Europe on Monday, following a modest Asian bounce to the $4,350-$4,355 area. Renewed hostilities in the Gulf push Crude Oil prices higher, fanning inflationary concerns and bolstering bets for more hawkish central banks. That weighs negatively on the Gold, as it mires in three-month lows.
WTI climbs over 4% as Israel and Iran trade strikes
West Texas Intermediate gains strong positive traction at the start of a new week as renewed hostilities in the Gulf dampen hopes for a deal to end a three-month-old war. The commodity holds sizeable gains and nears the $93.00 mark in the European session this Monday.
Dogecoin: Smart money flees DOGE, exposing a 12% downside risk
Dogecoin price hovers around $0.0850 at press time on Monday, keeping steady after a 5% rebound the previous day from the February 6 low at $0.08000. On-chain data show that large-wallet investors with 100 million to 1 billion DOGE have reduced their holdings to a five-month low, providing the downside pressure.
Majors
Cryptocurrencies
Signatures
Influential Institutions & People for the EUR/USD
The European Central Bank (ECB)
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone. With its beginnings in Germany in 1998, the ECB’s mandate is to maintain price stability in the Eurozone, so that the Euro’s (EUR) purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. As an entity independent of individual European Union countries and institutions, the ECB targets a year-on-year increase in consumer prices of 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is controlling the money supply. This involves, for instance, setting interest rates throughout the Eurozone. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde has been the President of the ECB since November 1, 2019. Her speeches, statements and comments are an important source of volatility, especially for the Euro and the currencies traded against the European currency.
ECB official website , on X and YouTubeThe Federal Reserve (Fed)
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central bank of the United States (US) and it has two main targets: to maintain the unemployment rate at its lowest possible levels and to keep inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors and the partially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes eight scheduled meetings in a year to review economic and financial conditions. It also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. The FOMC Minutes, which are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve weeks after the latest meeting, are a guide to the future US interest-rate policy.
Fed official website , on X and FacebookChristine Lagarde
Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Lagarde, who graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense, became President of the European Central Bank (ECB) on November 1, 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007-2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005-2007).
Kevin Warsh
Kevin Warsh took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve in May 2026, for a four-year term ending in 2030. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire in May 2040. Warsh, born in Albany (New York) on April 13, 1970, is an American financier and attorney who already served as a member of the Fed Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011 and was significantly involved in the central bank's response to the financial crisis. Before that, he served as a special assistant to the president for economic policy and the executive secretary of the National Economic Council under President George W. Bush.
ECB NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
About EUR/USD
The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a term used t o describe the most important currency pairs in the world. This group also includes GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD , USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD . The popularity of the Euro Dollar pair stems from its representation of two of the world’s largest economies: the Eurozone and the United States.
The EUR/USD is one of the most widely traded currency pairs in the Forex market, where the Euro serves as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. It accounts for more than half of the total trading volume in the Forex market, making gaps almost inexistent, let alone sudden reversals caused by breakaway gaps.
The EUR/USD is usually quiet during the Asian session, as economic data influencing the pair is usually released during the European or US sessions. Activity increases as European traders begin their day, leading to heightened trading volume. This activity slows around midday during the European lunch break but picks up again when US markets come online.
Related pairs
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', referring to the most important and widely traded pairs in the world. The pair is also known as “the Cable”, a term originating in the mid-19th century that refers to the first transatlantic telegraph connecting Great Britain and the United States. As a closely watched and widely traded currency pair, it features the British Pound as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. For that reason, macroeconomic data from both the United States and the United Kingdom significantly impacts its price. One notable event that affected the volatility of the pair was Brexit.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', a group of the most important currency pairs in the world. The Japanese Yen, known for its low interest rate, is frequently used in carry trades, making it one of the most traded currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY pair, the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen serves as the counter currency.
Trading USD/JPY is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although the latter nickname is more frequently associated with the GBP/JPY pair. USD/JPY usually has a positive correlation with other pairs like USD/CHF and USD/CAD, as all three use the US Dollar as the base currency. The value of the pair is often influenced by interest-rate differentials between the two central banks: the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).