EUR/USD Forecast and News
EUR/USD rebounds after falling toward 1.1700
EUR/USD gains traction and trades above 1.1730 in the American session, looking to end the week virtually unchanged. The bullish opening in Wall Street makes it difficult for the US Dollar to preserve its recovery momentum and helps the pair rebound heading into the weekend.
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EUR/USD Technical Overview
The 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) has flattened just above price at 1.1738, capping near-term upside. The 50-period SMA rises at 1.1715, while the 100- and 200-period SMAs climb at 1.1670 and 1.1615, keeping the broader tone supported. However, the Relative Strength Index (14) sits at 46, below the midline, pointing to subdued momentum.
The lower limit of the ascending regression channel and the 50-period SMA offer immediate support at 1.1715, just before the rising trend line at 1.1695. Below the latter, 1.1670 (100-period SMA) and 1.1615 (200-period SMA) could be seen as next support levels.
On the upside, immediate resistance aligns at 1.1765 (mid-point of the ascending channel), followed by 1.1820 (upper limit of the ascending channel).
Fundamental Overview
EUR/USD gathered bullish momentum and climbed above 1.1760 in the early American session on Thursday as markets reacted to the European Central Bank's (ECB) policy announcements and soft inflation data from the US.
The ECB left key rates unchanged as widely expected and the new economic projections showed that the economic growth forecasts has been revised up to 1.4% in 2025, 1.2% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027. In the post-meeting press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde explained that they can't offer forward guidance on policy, given the uncertainty surrounding the outlook. Lagarde also noted that they don't target exchange rates but added that they pay close attention to the Euro's appreciation.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Thursday that annual inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), softened to 2.7% in November. In this period, the core CPI rose by 2.6%. Both of these readings came in below analysts' estimate and caused the USD to come under bearish pressure with the immediate reaction.
Later in the American session, the negative shift seen in risk mood supported the USD and forced EUR/USD to reverse its direction. Existing Home Sales data for November and the final revision to the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index data for December will be featured in the economic calendar, which are unlikely to trigger a significant market reaction.
In case markets remain risk-averse with a bearish opening in Wall Street, EUR/USD could have a difficult time regaining its traction heading into the weekend. At the time of press, US stock index futures were trading mixed. Additionally, end-of-the-week flows ahead of the Christmas holiday could ramp up the pair's volatility and cause irregular movements.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly EUR/USD forecast? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Euro-US Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
EUR/USD: US employment, inflation data to shape market mood Premium
The EUR/USD pair surged to a fresh monthly high of 1.1762 in the second week of December, closing it with gains a handful of pips below the level. The advance was solely related to the US Dollar weakness, which was triggered by poor American data and the Federal Reserve monetary policy decision.
Latest EUR Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD rebounds after falling toward 1.1700
EUR/USD gains traction and trades above 1.1730 in the American session, looking to end the week virtually unchanged. The bullish opening in Wall Street makes it difficult for the US Dollar to preserve its recovery momentum and helps the pair rebound heading into the weekend.
USD/JPY rallies to near 157.00 as Yen plunges after BoJ’s policy outcome
The USD/JPY is up 0.85% to near 156.90 during the European trading session. The pair surges as the Japanese Yen underperforms across the board, following the Bank of Japan monetary policy announcement. In the policy meeting, the BoJ raised interest rates by 25 bps to 0.75%, as expected, the highest level seen in three decades.
Gold stays below $4,350, looks to post small weekly gains
Gold struggles to gather recovery momentum and stays below $4,350 in the second half of the day on Friday, as the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield edges higher. Nevertheless, the precious metal remains on track to end the week with modest gains as markets gear up for the holiday season.
Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid bearish market conditions
Bitcoin (BTC) is edging higher, trading above $88,000 at the time of writing on Monday. Altcoins, including Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP), are following in BTC’s footsteps, experiencing relief rebounds following a volatile week.
How much can one month of soft inflation change the Fed’s mind?
One month of softer inflation data is rarely enough to shift Federal Reserve policy on its own, but in a market highly sensitive to every data point, even a single reading can reshape expectations. November’s inflation report offered a welcome sign of cooling price pressures.
Majors
Cryptocurrencies
Signatures
EUR/USD Yearly forecast
How could EUR/USD move this year? Our experts make a EUR/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the euro-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2025 EUR/USD forecast!
EUR/USD FORECAST 2025
In the EUR/USD 2025 Forecast , FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik suggests that the macroeconomic landscape favors the US Dollar (USD) over the Euro (EUR), with a potential return to parity between the currencies.
While Donald Trump’s upcoming presidency may introduce higher inflation-related risks for the United States (US), the US economy demonstrated the strongest pandemic recovery among G7 nations, as measured by GDP, starting under Trump’s previous administration and following under Joe Biden.
From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD pair faces a bearish outlook for 2025, with technical indicators suggesting further declines after breaking below key moving averages and encountering strong resistance near 1.1200. The pair could test the 1.0330 zone, with the potential for parity if selling pressure persists. While a bearish trend is most likely, a sudden EU economic recovery or US weakness could push the pair toward 1.0600, with a possible rally to 1.1000 later in the year, though not before mid-2025.
MOST INFLUENTIAL FACTORS IN 2025 FOR EUR/USD
The year will be politically marked by Trump’s return to the White House. A Republican government is seen as positive for financial markets, but Trump’s pledge to cut taxes and impose tariffs on foreign goods and services may introduce uncertainty to both the political and economic landscape.
In the Eurozone, attention will focus on political turmoil in Germany and France, the two largest economies in the bloc. Germany is set to hold snap elections following a no-confidence vote against Chancellor Olaf Scholz in the Bundestag.
Influential Institutions & People for the EUR/USD
The European Central Bank (ECB)
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone. With its beginnings in Germany in 1998, the ECB’s mandate is to maintain price stability in the Eurozone, so that the Euro’s (EUR) purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. As an entity independent of individual European Union countries and institutions, the ECB targets a year-on-year increase in consumer prices of 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is controlling the money supply. This involves, for instance, setting interest rates throughout the Eurozone. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde has been the President of the ECB since November 1, 2019. Her speeches, statements and comments are an important source of volatility, especially for the Euro and the currencies traded against the European currency.
ECB official website , on X and YouTubeThe Federal Reserve (Fed)
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central bank of the United States (US) and it has two main targets: to maintain the unemployment rate at its lowest possible levels and to keep inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors and the partially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes eight scheduled meetings in a year to review economic and financial conditions. It also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. The FOMC Minutes, which are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve weeks after the latest meeting, are a guide to the future US interest-rate policy.
Fed official website , on X and FacebookChristine Lagarde
Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Lagarde, who graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense, became President of the European Central Bank (ECB) on November 1, 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007-2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005-2007).
Lagarde on ECB's Profile and WikipediaJerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. He was sworn in on May 23, 2022, for a second term as Chairman ending May 15, 2026. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and WikipediaECB NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
About EUR/USD
The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a term used t o describe the most important currency pairs in the world. This group also includes GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD , USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD . The popularity of the Euro Dollar pair stems from its representation of two of the world’s largest economies: the Eurozone and the United States.
The EUR/USD is one of the most widely traded currency pairs in the Forex market, where the Euro serves as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. It accounts for more than half of the total trading volume in the Forex market, making gaps almost inexistent, let alone sudden reversals caused by breakaway gaps.
The EUR/USD is usually quiet during the Asian session, as economic data influencing the pair is usually released during the European or US sessions. Activity increases as European traders begin their day, leading to heightened trading volume. This activity slows around midday during the European lunch break but picks up again when US markets come online.
Related pairs
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', referring to the most important and widely traded pairs in the world. The pair is also known as “the Cable”, a term originating in the mid-19th century that refers to the first transatlantic telegraph connecting Great Britain and the United States. As a closely watched and widely traded currency pair, it features the British Pound as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. For that reason, macroeconomic data from both the United States and the United Kingdom significantly impacts its price. One notable event that affected the volatility of the pair was Brexit.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', a group of the most important currency pairs in the world. The Japanese Yen, known for its low interest rate, is frequently used in carry trades, making it one of the most traded currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY pair, the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen serves as the counter currency.
Trading USD/JPY is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although the latter nickname is more frequently associated with the GBP/JPY pair. USD/JPY usually has a positive correlation with other pairs like USD/CHF and USD/CAD, as all three use the US Dollar as the base currency. The value of the pair is often influenced by interest-rate differentials between the two central banks: the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).