EUR/USD Forecast and News
EUR/USD trims losses and returns to the 1.1750 area
The US Dollar resumed its decline in the American afternoon, helping EUR/USD trim early losses. The pair trades around 1.1750 as market participants gear up for the European Central Bank monetary policy decision and the United States Consumer Price Index.
Latest EUR News
EUR/USD Technical Overview
The 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) stands above the 50 and 200 SMAs, underscoring a bullish backdrop, while the pair holds above the 50 SMA near 1.1700 and the 200 SMA at 1.1600 but remains capped by the 20 SMA at 1.1745. The Relative Strength Index (14) slips to 48.83, neutral, signalling waning bullish momentum. Additionally, EUR/USD now trades in the lower half of the ascending regression channel, reaffirming buyers' reluctance.
The rising trend line from 1.1500 remains intact and offers support near 1.1680, slightly below the 50-period SMA and the lower limit of the ascending channel near 1.1700. In case the pair breaks below the trend line, 1.1620 (static level) and 1.1600 (200-period SMA) could be seen as next support levels.
On the upside, 1.1750 (mid-point of the ascending channel) aligns as the immediate resistance level before 1.1800 (upper limit of the ascending channel).
Fundamental Overview
The data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed on Tuesday that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) declined by 105,000 in October and increased by 64,000 in November. Although the immediate market reaction caused the US Dollar (USD) to weaken, the currency managed to stage a rebound later in the day.
The CME Group FedWatch Tool shows that markets are still pricing in about a 25% probability of a 25 basis points (bps) Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in January, virtually unchanged from before the release of the employment data. The significant NFP decrease in October was likely caused by the loss of government jobs during the shutdown. Hence, the negative impact of this data on the USD's performance remained short-lived.
Additionally, in a blog post published on Tuesday, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic argued that the jobs data painted a mix picture and did not change the outlook. He further noted that he preferred a policy hold in December, citing multiple surveys pointing to higher input costs.
The US economic calendar will not feature any high-tier data releases on Wednesday but multiple Fed policymakers will be delivering speeches. In case policymakers voice their support for a policy hold in early 2026, the USD could hold its ground and make it difficult for EUR/USD to regather its bullish momentum.
On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce rate decisions and publish the revised macroeconomic projections.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly EUR/USD forecast? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Euro-US Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
EUR/USD: US employment, inflation data to shape market mood Premium
The EUR/USD pair surged to a fresh monthly high of 1.1762 in the second week of December, closing it with gains a handful of pips below the level. The advance was solely related to the US Dollar weakness, which was triggered by poor American data and the Federal Reserve monetary policy decision.
Latest EUR Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD trims losses and returns to the 1.1750 area
The US Dollar resumed its decline in the American afternoon, helping EUR/USD trim early losses. The pair trades around 1.1750 as market participants gear up for the European Central Bank monetary policy decision and the United States Consumer Price Index.
GBP/USD flirts with 1.3400 after nearing 1.3300
The GBP/USD changed course after dipping with UK inflation data, and trades near the 1.3400 mark, as investors expect the Bank of England to deliver a 25 basis points interest rate cut after the two-day meeting on Thursday.
Gold maintains its positive momentum, trades around $4,330
The XAU/USD pair gained on a deteriorated market mood, trading near its weekly highs near $4,340. The bright metal advances with caution as market players await first-tier events in Europe and hte United States.
Bitcoin risks deeper correction as ETF outflows mount, derivative traders stay on the sidelines
Bitcoin (BTC) remains under pressure, trading below $87,000 on Wednesday, nearing a key support level. A decisive daily close below this zone could open the door to a deeper correction.
Monetary policy: Three central banks, three decisions, the same caution
While the Fed eased its monetary policy on 10 December for the third consecutive FOMC meeting, without making any guarantees about future action, the BoE, the ECB and the BoJ are holding their respective meetings this week.
Majors
Cryptocurrencies
Signatures
EUR/USD Yearly forecast
How could EUR/USD move this year? Our experts make a EUR/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the euro-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2025 EUR/USD forecast!
EUR/USD FORECAST 2025
In the EUR/USD 2025 Forecast , FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik suggests that the macroeconomic landscape favors the US Dollar (USD) over the Euro (EUR), with a potential return to parity between the currencies.
While Donald Trump’s upcoming presidency may introduce higher inflation-related risks for the United States (US), the US economy demonstrated the strongest pandemic recovery among G7 nations, as measured by GDP, starting under Trump’s previous administration and following under Joe Biden.
From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD pair faces a bearish outlook for 2025, with technical indicators suggesting further declines after breaking below key moving averages and encountering strong resistance near 1.1200. The pair could test the 1.0330 zone, with the potential for parity if selling pressure persists. While a bearish trend is most likely, a sudden EU economic recovery or US weakness could push the pair toward 1.0600, with a possible rally to 1.1000 later in the year, though not before mid-2025.
MOST INFLUENTIAL FACTORS IN 2025 FOR EUR/USD
The year will be politically marked by Trump’s return to the White House. A Republican government is seen as positive for financial markets, but Trump’s pledge to cut taxes and impose tariffs on foreign goods and services may introduce uncertainty to both the political and economic landscape.
In the Eurozone, attention will focus on political turmoil in Germany and France, the two largest economies in the bloc. Germany is set to hold snap elections following a no-confidence vote against Chancellor Olaf Scholz in the Bundestag.
Influential Institutions & People for the EUR/USD
The European Central Bank (ECB)
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone. With its beginnings in Germany in 1998, the ECB’s mandate is to maintain price stability in the Eurozone, so that the Euro’s (EUR) purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. As an entity independent of individual European Union countries and institutions, the ECB targets a year-on-year increase in consumer prices of 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is controlling the money supply. This involves, for instance, setting interest rates throughout the Eurozone. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde has been the President of the ECB since November 1, 2019. Her speeches, statements and comments are an important source of volatility, especially for the Euro and the currencies traded against the European currency.
ECB official website , on X and YouTubeThe Federal Reserve (Fed)
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central bank of the United States (US) and it has two main targets: to maintain the unemployment rate at its lowest possible levels and to keep inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors and the partially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes eight scheduled meetings in a year to review economic and financial conditions. It also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. The FOMC Minutes, which are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve weeks after the latest meeting, are a guide to the future US interest-rate policy.
Fed official website , on X and FacebookChristine Lagarde
Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Lagarde, who graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense, became President of the European Central Bank (ECB) on November 1, 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007-2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005-2007).
Lagarde on ECB's Profile and WikipediaJerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. He was sworn in on May 23, 2022, for a second term as Chairman ending May 15, 2026. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and WikipediaECB NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
About EUR/USD
The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a term used t o describe the most important currency pairs in the world. This group also includes GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD , USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD . The popularity of the Euro Dollar pair stems from its representation of two of the world’s largest economies: the Eurozone and the United States.
The EUR/USD is one of the most widely traded currency pairs in the Forex market, where the Euro serves as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. It accounts for more than half of the total trading volume in the Forex market, making gaps almost inexistent, let alone sudden reversals caused by breakaway gaps.
The EUR/USD is usually quiet during the Asian session, as economic data influencing the pair is usually released during the European or US sessions. Activity increases as European traders begin their day, leading to heightened trading volume. This activity slows around midday during the European lunch break but picks up again when US markets come online.
Related pairs
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', referring to the most important and widely traded pairs in the world. The pair is also known as “the Cable”, a term originating in the mid-19th century that refers to the first transatlantic telegraph connecting Great Britain and the United States. As a closely watched and widely traded currency pair, it features the British Pound as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. For that reason, macroeconomic data from both the United States and the United Kingdom significantly impacts its price. One notable event that affected the volatility of the pair was Brexit.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', a group of the most important currency pairs in the world. The Japanese Yen, known for its low interest rate, is frequently used in carry trades, making it one of the most traded currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY pair, the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen serves as the counter currency.
Trading USD/JPY is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although the latter nickname is more frequently associated with the GBP/JPY pair. USD/JPY usually has a positive correlation with other pairs like USD/CHF and USD/CAD, as all three use the US Dollar as the base currency. The value of the pair is often influenced by interest-rate differentials between the two central banks: the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).