Tron Price Forecast: TRX edges lower as falling TVL and negative funding rates fuel bearish outlook

Tron (TRX) price continues to trade in red, below $0.288 at the time of writing on Tuesday, as bears regain control following last week’s rejection at a key resistance level. Weakness across on-chain and derivatives metrics is amplifying the downside bias, raising the likelihood that TRX extends its corrective move in the coming days.

Tron’s on-chain and derivatives show bearish bias

DefiLlama data shows that Tron’s TVL dropped to $4.58 billion on Tuesday and has been steadily declining since early October. Falling TVL signals weakening activity and waning user engagement in Tron’s ecosystem, implying that fewer participants are depositing or interacting with TRX-based protocols, which doesn't bode well for its price.

Derivatives data for Tron support a bearish outlook. Coinglass’s OI-Weighted Funding Rate data shows that the number of traders betting that the price of TRX will slide further is higher than those anticipating a price increase.

The metric has flipped to a negative rate and stands at -0.0044% on Tuesday, indicating shorts are paying longs, suggesting bearish sentiment toward TRX.

Tron Price Forecast: TRX bears aiming for the $0.276 mark

Tron price faced rejection at the daily level of $0.296 on November 12 and declined slightly. At the time of writing on Tuesday, TRX extends the losses, trading below $0.288.

If TRX continues its correction, it could extend the decline toward the November low of $0.276.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart reads 38, below the neutral level of 50, indicating bearish momentum gaining traction. 

On the other hand, if TRX recovers, it could extend the recovery toward the daily resistance at $0.296.