Ripple Price Prediction: XRP targets 14% move ahead of SEC Crypto Task Force roundtable
- XRP posts mild gains on Thursday after a US court blocked President Trump's tariffs.
- The SEC has announced the agenda and panelists for its June 9 crypto roundtable.
- XRP derivatives Open Interest drops to $4.8 billion as long liquidations surge, signaling strong headwinds.
Ripple (XRP) hovers at around $2.28 at the time of writing on Thursday, reflecting bullish sentiment in the crypto market after a United States (US) court nixed President Donald Trump's tariffs on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) Crypto Task Force will host a roundtable on June 9, bringing together key industry figures, including Rebecca Rettig from Jito Labs.
According to a Reuters report, the Court of International Trade ruled that the US Constitution grants Congress exclusive power to regulate trade with other countries and that this authority cannot be overridden by the President's emergency powers to safeguard the economy.
SEC announces DeFi roundtable agenda and panelists
The SEC Crypto Task Force has announced the agenda and panelists for its June 9 roundtable. The roundtable, dubbed "DeFi and the American Spirit," will be held at the agency's headquarters in Washington, D.C.
Nine members will be on the panel, including Jill Gunter from Espresso Systems, Omid Malekan from the Columbia Business School, Rebecca Rettig from Jito Labs and Peter Van Valkenburgh from Coin Center, among others.
"DeFi exemplifies the promise of crypto, as it allows people to interact without intermediaries," Commissioner Hester M. Peirce, head of the Crypto Task Force, said. "I look forward to learning from the panelists about how we can create a regulatory environment in which DeFi can thrive," he added.
Technical outlook: Can XRP validate a potential 14% breakout?
XRP's price uptrend in early May has been overshadowed by a strong bearish trend in the past two weeks as it eyes the potential to extend losses toward $2.20, the next area of interest for traders eyeing dips.
The money remittance token is holding beneath key moving averages on the 4-hour chart, including the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), the 100-period EMA, and the 200-period EMA. This gives credence to the short-term bearish momentum, which is accentuated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reversal below the 50 midline.
Should the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator flash a sell signal as the blue MACD line crosses below the red signal line, key liquidity-rich areas, such as the demand zones at $2.20, $2.21, and $2.00, respectively, will come into sight.
XRP/USDT 4-hour chart
The falling wedge pattern illustrated on the chart above suggests that XRP has the potential to reverse its downward trend. This bullish pattern is characterized by two downward-sloping trendlines that converge to the right of the chart, indicating declining volume and sell-side pressure.
Traders look for a break above the upper trendline, accompanied by rising trading volume, to validate the falling wedge. As observed on the chart, the 14% target of $2.63 is determined by measuring the distance between the pattern's widest points and extrapolating above the upper trendline.
Meanwhile, XRP derivatives data indicate that Open Interest (OI) has decreased by approximately 4.6% to $4.67 billion over the past 24 hours. This coincides with a near 50% increase in volume to $4.45 billion, hinting at a developing bearish bias as traders close positions in futures and options.
XRP derivatives data | Source CoinGlass
The drop in OI as volume increases underpins a noticeable increase in long position liquidations, which reached $8.5 million over the past 24 hours compared to approximately $713,000 in shorts.
If this situation persists, traders may move cautiously amid anticipated volatility, especially with the release of the Personal Consumer Expenditure (PCE) Price Index inflation data on Friday.
SEC vs Ripple lawsuit FAQs
It depends on the transaction, according to a court ruling released on July 14, 2023: For institutional investors or over-the-counter sales, XRP is a security. For retail investors who bought the token via programmatic sales on exchanges, on-demand liquidity services and other platforms, XRP is not a security.
The United States Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) accused Ripple and its executives of raising more than $1.3 billion through an unregistered asset offering of the XRP token. While the judge ruled that programmatic sales aren’t considered securities, sales of XRP tokens to institutional investors are indeed investment contracts. In this last case, Ripple did breach the US securities law and had to pay a $125 million civil fine.
The ruling offers a partial win for both Ripple and the SEC, depending on what one looks at. Ripple gets a big win over the fact that programmatic sales aren’t considered securities, and this could bode well for the broader crypto sector as most of the assets eyed by the SEC’s crackdown are handled by decentralized entities that sold their tokens mostly to retail investors via exchange platforms, experts say. Still, the ruling doesn’t help much to answer the key question of what makes a digital asset a security, so it isn’t clear yet if this lawsuit will set precedent for other open cases that affect dozens of digital assets. Topics such as which is the right degree of decentralization to avoid the “security” label or where to draw the line between institutional and programmatic sales persist.
The SEC has stepped up its enforcement actions toward the blockchain and digital assets industry, filing charges against platforms such as Coinbase or Binance for allegedly violating the US Securities law. The SEC claims that the majority of crypto assets are securities and thus subject to strict regulation. While defendants can use parts of Ripple’s ruling in their favor, the SEC can also find reasons in it to keep its current strategy of regulation by enforcement.
Author
John Isige
FXStreet
John Isige is a seasoned cryptocurrency journalist and markets analyst committed to delivering high-quality, actionable insights tailored to traders, investors, and crypto enthusiasts. He enjoys deep dives into emerging Web3 tren
