Ethereum’s rally to $6,000+ remains on track

In our last update from three weeks ago, when Ethereum was trading at around $3400, we shared our primary Elliott Wave (EW) Principle view, where we expected that

“… the first short-term top to form from around the red 100% Fibonacci extension, approximately $3600, for the gray W-iii—a typical target for the third of a third of a third wave. The subsequent multi-day gray W-iv correction should ideally stall around the 76.4% level ($3250ish) before the gray W-v targets the 123.6-138.2% extensions ($3955-4175), etc. We don’t expect a more severe (multi-week) correction until the red W-iii is finished, ideally at the 161.8% level: ~$4525.”

Ether reached a peak of $3859 on July 21, then fell to $3510 on July 24, rallied to $3941 on July 28, and is currently trading around $3675. See Figure 1 below. Therefore, the gray W-iii, iv, v completed relatively close to their ideal targets, demonstrating that the EW accurately forecasted each move and wave, confirming its reliability for our premium newsletter members.

Figure 1. Our preferred short-term EW count for Ethereum

Assuming Sunday’s $3356 low marked the end of the green W-4, we can then set up the gray W-i, ii as shown in Figure 1 above. The ideal W-ii target zone is $3450-$ 3555, so Tuesday’s low at $3546 got close enough. Now, Ethereum is breaking above Monday’s $3737 high, strongly suggesting the gray W-iii of the green W-5 is underway, with confirmation above $3878. Thus, although the warning levels for the Bears are still shown, because W-5 has not yet been confirmed, those for the Bulls are now set at: 1st at $ 3737, 2nd at $ 3648, 3rd at $ 3546, and 4th at $ 3356.

Note that the ideal red W-v target at the red 200% extension of roughly $5100 is significantly below the breakout/symmetry target of about $6140. See Figure 2 below. Therefore, we may see an extended fifth wave, which is quite common for cryptocurrencies. Additionally, the 200% log-based Fibonacci extension indicates a target of around $6200, while a linear-scaled 300% Fibonacci extension targets the $6190s. All of these align.

Figure 2. Our preferred long-term EW count for Ethereum