• Bitcoin and Ethereum set for a losing week

  • Hawkish Fed aids dollar and hurts risky assets

  • SEC outlines timeline for ether ETF launch

Roller coaster ride

The last few days have been eventful for cryptocurrencies, with both Bitcoin and Ethereum easing from their recent highs. The stronger-than-expected NFP report on last Friday was the main catalyst behind Bitcoin’s decline heading into this week, while on Monday spot Bitcoin ETFs ended their streak of 19 consecutive days of net inflows.

This was just the beginning of a relatively volatile week characterised by surprises in key macro releases. On Wednesday, crypto investors cheered the softer US CPI print, allowing digital assets to recoup some losses. However, the euphoria faded quickly as the Fed poured cold water on expectations of a more accommodative policy in the near term.

Specifically, the updated dot plot indicated one rate cut for the year, down from three in the previous version. In general, the prospect of fewer rate cuts by the Fed is negative for cryptocurrencies, especially as sector-specific developments have been largely exhausted in the first half of 2024. Moreover, higher yields translate into a stronger US dollar, which has a direct negative correlation with crypto prices.

Cryptos benefit from headlines

Due to their unmatured nature and easy access to non-professional investors, cryptocurrencies usually overreact in information that was supposed to be already reflected into prices. For instance, Ethereum snatched some gains after SEC Chair Gary Gensler confirmed that there is progress regarding the launch of spot-ether ETFs. Considering that the final approval is more or less priced in given the SEC’s rule changes in May, it would not be strange if the bulls continue to react positively on emerging headlines.

In other news, the Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, a known crypto backer, stated that he wants all remaining Bitcoin to be made in the US.  The former US President is currently ahead in polls and his potential victory could be a bullish catalyst for the crypto industry.

BTC/USD falls after forming double top

BTCUSD has come under some selling pressure since its rejection at $71,995, which created a double top structure. However, the decline seems to be on hold for now as the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) has been acting as a strong floor. 

Should selling pressures persist, Bitcoin could challenge the recent support of $66,000, which overlaps with the 50-day SMA. Further retreats could then cease at the April support of $64,500.

On the flipside, if the price reverses back higher, the double top region of $71,955 could prevent initial advances. Conquering this barricade, the bulls could aim for the all-time high of $73,800.


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