BTC/USD Crypto Signal

Yesterday’s signals produced a losing short trade following the bearish pin candlestick which rejected the resistance level at $3,434.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.75% per trade.

Trades may only be taken until 5pm Tokyo time today.

Long Trade

• Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $3,018.

• Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.

• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price.

• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Short Trades

• Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of the bearish trend line currently sitting at about or $3,507 or $3,593.

• Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.

• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price.

• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote yesterday that I would take a bearish bias today following and bearish price action at one of those levels signalling a bearish reversal. I had thought the confluent area of a major bearish trend line and horizontal resistance at $3,434 would be a good trigger to enter a short trade but as it happened it did not work out well and led to a losing trade. Interestingly, a lower supportive trend line survives and firms up through another touch, which is a bullish sign, but the top of a consolidating triangle can be made by redrawing the bearish trend line to connect the two recent swing highs. Therefore, there is little change in the technical picture, the picture is just looking a little more bullish, but there is still a long-term bearish trend and heavy resistance.

A sustained break above $3,593 would be a bullish sign, which a sustained break below the supportive trend line could trigger a fall to new long-term low prices near the $3,000 level.

There is nothing important due today concerning the USD.

---