Bitcoin’s worrying slips down

Market overview

The crypto market cap has been hovering around $2.34-2.35T for the third day in a row. Volatility seems to have been turned off in this market, while stock indices are much livelier. There, investors are actively buying up dips, relying on support in the form of important moving averages: 50-day for the Dow Jones and Russell 2000 and 200-day for the Nasdaq100. The crypto market is now below its 50- and 200-day curves by 17% and 31%, respectively. If cryptocurrencies still play a role as an indicator of risk appetite, it points to disaster.

By and large, the cryptocurrency sentiment index says the same thing, falling to 8 at the start of the day on Wednesday. The indicator has been in single digits for nine of the last fourteen days. This is worse than the darkest moments of 2020 and 2022. It seems that as the cryptocurrency market matures, it is becoming less optimistic. On the other hand, it is also becoming less volatile.

Bitcoin continues its downward drift, periodically bouncing along the way. At the end of US trading, the price of the first cryptocurrency fell to $66.7K but added about 1,000 at the time of writing. It is alarming that Bitcoin's dynamics mirror the recent strengthening of the dollar. When investors become convinced that the rise of the dollar is a trend, there may be a sharp increase in volatility.

News background

Bitcoin's collapse to $60,000 has put psychological pressure on long-term BTC holders, comparable to the collapse of the Terra (LUNA) ecosystem in May 2022, Glassnode notes. They began to sell off assets at significant losses, which is typical of the later stages of a bear market.

A net outflow of stablecoins from the Binance exchange has been observed for the third month in a row, signalling a continuing liquidity squeeze across the crypto market, notes analyst Darkfost. The last time a similar dynamic was observed was during the 2023 bear market.

Standard Chartered Bank has significantly lowered its forecasts for major cryptocurrencies for 2026 amid market volatility. The forecast for Bitcoin has been lowered from $150,000 to $100,000, for Ethereum from $7,000 to $4,000, for Solana from $250 to $135, and for XRP from $8 to $2.8.
Bloomberg Intelligence commodities strategist Mike McGlone has reiterated his forecast for Bitcoin. According to him, the leading cryptocurrency could plummet to $10,000 this year, heralding a recession in the US economy and a stock market crash.

According to Token Terminal, Polygon has surpassed Ethereum in daily transaction fees for the first time. The Polymarket prediction platform has made the main contribution to the growth in activity.

Stablecoins are increasingly being used for payments, salaries and savings, according to a study by BVNK. The key factor was savings on fees, which average 40% compared to traditional payment services.