Bitcoin traded as high-beta software in 2025, not as a safe-haven asset

The correlation between Bitcoin and the software technology sector reached levels of 0.68 to 0.78 in 30-to-90-day rolling windows during 2025, according to data from Grayscale, ByteTree Research, and BTIG. For context: correlation with gold held between 0.12 and 0.31 over the same period. The numbers confirm what several analysts had already argued — BTC did not operate as a macro hedge, but as a high-risk growth asset tied to SaaS software performance.

When the software sector corrected between 20% and 25% from its peaks, Bitcoin pulled back roughly 30%. The move was nearly synchronized. Analyst Kevin overlaid BTC against XSW and documented the correlation precisely. His read: the market treated Bitcoin as open-source technological infrastructure, and in 2025, that category absorbed the heaviest losses.

AI displaced the narrative and capital followed

The disruption driven by advanced language models and AI agents compressed margins across traditional software. Platforms like Salesforce and Adobe lost pricing power against automation. Capital rotated into semiconductors, hyperscalers, and defensive assets. Bitcoin, carrying no verifiable cash flows and no renewed narrative, landed in the same bucket as the software AI left behind.

The results were unambiguous: gold gained between 55% and 73% in 2025, silver outpaced even that range, the S&P 500 advanced between 12% and 15%, and T-bills delivered return without volatility. BTC closed multiple stretches of the year flat or negative. Bitcoin ETFs accumulated between $50 billion and $60 billion in institutional flows, but during risk-off episodes, redemptions amplified drawdowns rather than cushioning them.

Prolonged restrictive monetary policy made the picture worse. With rates held higher for longer than expected, assets without cash flow fundamentals took the steepest relative losses.

Kevin acknowledges Bitcoin can clear the hurdle, but flags something absent from prior cycles: the problem is not purely macro or cyclical — it is narrative. For the first time, BTC has no hot story to tell while capital chases AI returns. 

Several analysts on X recorded partial decoupling signals in the final drawdowns of 2025, with BTC separating from software in certain stretches, which could point to a gradual transition toward macro asset status. The convergence between blockchain and AI — through decentralized compute, trustless verification, and on-chain micropayments — represents the most credible path to rebuilding that narrative.

As of February 2026, the market has yet to resolve the central question: whether Bitcoin finds its place inside the AI cycle, or gets filed away as the asset of the previous one.