Bitcoin needs to top $65.2K to break downtrend: Bitfinex

Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency by market value, has rallied 16% since testing lows under $54,000 early this month. A bullish revival, however, is not yet confirmed, according to analysts at cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex.

In a note shared with CoinDesk Tuesday, analysts said the cryptocurrency needs to smash the August high of $65,200 to confirm the end of a prolonged downtrend, characterized by lower price highs since March.

"BTC is now within touching distance of the Aug. 25 top of $65,200. The reason this level is important is because since the all-time high of $73,666 was reached on March 14th, BTC has still not managed to eclipse a single high before a local/new bottom was formed. This qualifies for the technical definition of a downtrend," analysts said, explaining why $65,200 is the level to beat for the bulls.

BTC's daily price chart showing downtrend since March. (TradingView) (TradingView)

The record high of over $73,000 reached on March 14, followed by the March 20 high of $60,780 and the subsequent lower highs and lower lows are represented by the falling trendline on the chart above.

"This implies that the August 25th local high at $65,200 before our September 6th local bottom holds a lot of significance from a higher time frame perspective," analysts at Bitfinex noted.

In other words, a convincing move above the August high would confirm the end of the interim downtrend and a resumption of the broader uptrend from the October 2023 lows under $30,000.

The recent Fed rate cut, large stimulus announcement by China and the return of risk appetite to broader financial markets favor a move above $65,200.

One reason to be cautious is the flattening of the cumulative volume delta indicator since prices rose past $63,500 over the weekend, per data tracked by Coinalyze. It's a sign of a slowdown in the spot market buying. The global cumulative volume delta indicator measures the difference between buying and selling volumes across centralized cryptocurrency exchanges over time.

"It is now entirely possible that the price could form a new range near current prices and consolidate for a period, as we have seen following similar previous price rallies which have been initially prompted by spot buying, but then is followed by perpetual and futures markets activity. Another cause for caution is that spot market buying has slowed. This is evident in the Figure below where we can see the spot cumulative volume delta indicator flattening out once the price moved past $63,500," analysts told CoinDesk.