Bitcoin decouples from Nasdaq amid ETF speculation

Bitcoin (BTC) has decoupled from Nasdaq (NDX), having moved in tandem with Wall Street's tech-heavy equity index for most of the past four years.

The 40-day correlation between bitcoin and Nadaq now stands at zero, indicating a lack of relationship between the asset classes, according to data tracked by research provider Fairlead Strategies.

The correlation value is determined with the help of a mathematical formula based on the index and BTC's price movements over time. An above-0.5 correlation represents a moderately strong positive relation where the two assets are in unison, with above -0.70 readings indicating a robust relation. Negative figures of 0.5 or lower suggest otherwise.

The correlation now stands at zero. (Fairlead Strategies) (Fairlead Strategies)

The correlation between bitcoin and Nasdaq has been consistently positive since early 2020, peaking at 0.8 during the 2022 crypto bear market.

The latest decoupling from the two can be explained by the fact that the crypto market, since October, has been squarely focused on expectations for a spot bitcoin ETF launch in the U.S. The Securities and Exchange Commission is likely to decide on nearly a dozen spot ETF applications by Jan. 10, potentially opening doors for widespread adoption of the asset class.

The breakdown of correlation also means bitcoin can now act as a portfolio diversifier. Fairlead Strategies expects bitcoin to remain agnostic to Nasdaq for some time.

"We think correlations for Bitcoin and the NDX will likely remain low in the coming months given the opportunity for events such as a spot Bitcoin ETF approval and the halving in April," analysts at Fairlead, led by founder and managing partner Katie Stockton, said in a note to clients on Monday.

"Also, risk assets generally see lower correlations in bull markets than bear markets," the analysts added.