USD/CHF got rejected at 0.8317, and we see room for a third leg down

USD/CHF has seen a fresh drop from the 0.8317 area, where the previously broken channel support line acted as nice resistance. We think there is now a risk of deeper declines, and looking at the overall structure, it seems that a third leg down could be in the cards.

We are talking about wave C, which could start targeting lower prices near 0.8100 next week, where wave C could potentially be equal to wave A. On the 4-hour chart, the pair is already back near the 0.8207 support line.

If we see any new recovery, the 0.8317 area would be important resistance to watch. For now, USD/CHF looks neutral or even bearish, especially if we get more evidence that a higher-degree leading diagonal has topped out. An important top would be confirmed if the market breaks well below 0.8110. Until then, we prefer to treat any bounce as a possible retest of resistance rather than the start of a new rally.

In the bigger picture, on a higher-degree chart, we see an ongoing triangle, with price now moving into the lower side of the range, where support sits near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement around 0.7700.

Next week, the US jobs report on Friday, November 6, at 14:30 CET will be the key event for the dollar side of this pair, and it could easily speed up the move toward 0.8100 or cause a temporary pause along the way.