The price of crude oil declined today as the International Energy Agency (IEA) cautioned OPEC and its allies of a major challenge in 2020. This is because the France-based agency expects demand to decline significantly. This is because their rivals like the United States are expected to continue boosting production in the coming year. This statement came ahead of the important OPEC meeting, which will be held in December. OPEC+ members agreed to slash production in 2018 but some member countries have not been compliant. The IEA expects that oil production will be 30.2 million barrels per day in the current quarter. This is higher than the 28.2 million barrels that are needed.

The euro rose today after Europe released important inflation and trade data. Data from Eurostat showed that headline CPI remained unchanged at 0.7%. The number declined from 0.2% to 0.1% on a MoM basis. The core CPI remained unchanged at 1.1% on a YoY basis. It remained unchanged at 0.1% on a MoM basis. CPI ex-tobacco declined from 0.8% to 0.6%. These numbers show that the European economy is still struggling to hit the 2.0% target inflation level even after this year’s rate cut.

The US dollar declined slightly after the market reacted to the testimony given by the Federal Reserve Chair. Jerome Powell was testifying in congress on Wednesday and Thursday. In his statements, he reiterated that the Fed will likely leave rates unchanged going forward. The bank has already made three cuts this year. Yesterday, the market received inflation data from the US. Producer prices rose by 0.4% in October but declined to 1.1% in the last 12 months. This was the slowest rate of annual growth since 2016. The market received retail sales data today. Headline retail sales rose by 0.3% to $526.5 billion after declining by -0.3% in the previous month. Sales rose by 3.8% on an annualized basis. The core retail sales rose by 2.4%. Meanwhile, the New York empire state manufacturing index declined from 4.0 to 2.90.


The EUR/USD pair rose to a high of 1.1035. This price is along the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level on the hourly chart. The RSI has been on an upward trend while the price is trading below the 14-day and 28-day moving averages. The pair appears to be on an upward trend, that will likely see it test the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level at 1.1060.


The XBR/USD pair declined today after the IEA warning on demand. The pair reached a low of 61, which was lower than this week’s high of 62.60. The pair is between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level. It is also along the lower line of the Bollinger Bands while the RSI is about to hit the oversold level of 30. The pair may continue trading within the current channel as the market waits on more indications from OPEC.


The AUD/USD pair declined to a low of 0.6786 as the market continued to react to the weaker Chinese data released yesterday. Today’s lowest level was along the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level. The pair is trading at 0.6798, which is along the 50% Fibonacci level on the four-hour chart. The price is below the 14-day and 28-day moving averages and below the Ichimoku cloud. The pair may resume the downward trend as the market waits for RBA minutes, which will be released next week.

General Risk Warning for FX & CFD Trading. FX & CFDs are leveraged products. Trading in FX & CFDs related to foreign exchange, commodities, financial indices and other underlying variables, carry a high level of risk and can result in the loss of all of your investment. As such, FX & CFDs may not be appropriate for all investors. You should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to trade, you should become aware of all the risks associated with FX & CFD trading, and seek advice from an independent and suitably licensed financial advisor. Under no circumstances shall we have any liability to any person or entity for (a) any loss or damage in whole or part caused by, resulting from, or relating to any transactions related to FX or CFDs or (b) any direct, indirect, special, consequential or incidental damages whatsoever.

Analysis feed

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

GBP/USD catches fresh bids, regains1.3400 ahead of UK PMIs

GBP/USD sees a fresh leg higher in early European trading, as the bulls take out the 1.34 handle amid growing optimism over a speedy and soft Brexit. The focus remains on the UK Markit Preliminary PMIs ahead of BOE.


EUR/USD: Inverted hammer on D1, flash PMIs eyed

EUR/USD created a bearish inverted hammer candle on Friday, establishing 1.12 as key resistance. A bearish hammer reversal would be confirmed if the spot closes Monday below 1.1102. Better-than-expected German PMI is needed to avoid a bearish close.


Forex Today: Caution over deal details offset better China data; Brexit optimism, PMIs to dominate

Despite both sides agreeing on the Phase One trade deal on Friday, markets traded with caution, as they remained sceptical over the details of the deal that appear murky.

Read more

Gold: Flatlined after the biggest weekly gain since September

Gold is lacking a clear directional bias in Asia, having eked out its biggest weekly gain in nearly three months. The yellow metal is currently trading at $1,474 per Oz, representing little or no change on the day.

Gold News

USD/JPY clings to modest gains, just below mid-109.00s

The USD/JPY pair edged higher on the first day of a new trading week, albeit lacked any strong follow-through and remained well within the previous session's trading range.


Forex Majors