Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD extends its consolidative phase around $4,300

XAU/USD Current price: $4,304.30

• Mixed US data left investors uncertain about the next move by the Federal Reserve.
• United States inflation and European central banks’ announcements are next in line.
• XAU/USD consolidates around $4,300 buyers still looking for a catalyst.

Gold prices extend their consolidative phase on Tuesday, with the bright metal holding above the $4,300 mark, but unable to run past the $4,350 weekly top. The bright metal found some near-term demand early in the American session, following the release of a batch of United States (US) data. The mixed figures put near-term pressure on the US Dollar (USD), although it also affected Wall Street’s performance. As a result, the USD intraday decline was quickly reversed, with the American currency still on the negative side.

 The US published the ADP Employment Change 4-week survey, which showed that the private sector added 16.25K new positions on average in the week ending November 29, improving from the previous 4.75K. Additionally, the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report indicated that the country added 64K in November, after losing 105K in October. The Unemployment Rate was higher than expected, up  to 4.6%, from the previous 4.4%. Finally, the US also published October Retail Sales, which remained unchanged in the month, following a revised 0.1% gain in September.

Market players are still uncertain about whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be able to deliver more than one interest rate cut in 2026. Some extra light could be shed by data coming on Thursday, as the US will release an update on the Consumer Price Index (CPI). On the same day, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) will announce their decisions on monetary policy. The macroeconomic calendar has little to offer on Wednesday.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook 

In the near term, XAU/USD maintains its modest bullish bias. The 4-hour chart shows that the pair is currently above all its moving averages, with the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) climbing above the 100- and 200-period SMAs, and all three sloping higher. The pair is currently battling to remain above the 20-period SMA, while the 100-period SMA, which is further below, provides support at $4,215. Meanwhile, the Momentum indicator ticks higher within neutral levels, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator sits at 55, heading lower and hinting at limited gains ahead in the near term.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD is well above a bullish 20-day (SMA), which advances above the 100- and 200-day SMAs, all of which reinforce the bullish bias. The 20-day SMA at $4,195.66 offers nearby dynamic support. At the same time, the Momentum indicator holds above its midline but has eased, signaling that buying pressure is losing some steam, while the RSI stands at 69 with a modest upward slope.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)