UK replaces part of the mortgage with public equity

EU mid-market update: Saudi’s damaged bypass sends the export rebound back through Hormuz; UK replaces part of the mortgage with public equity; China cuts tariffs around the strategic perimeter while chip access stays two-key.

Notes/observations

- Trump has rejected seven-day access to Hormuz because Washington now values the blockade more highly than immediate oil relief. Iran’s proposal would have reopened the Strait and paused the wider fighting within seven days in exchange for the U.S. lifting its blockade of Iranian ports and restarting negotiations; Trump rejected it over the weekend, publicly arguing that Iran is “losing so badly,” while a White House official separately told Reuters that the president believes he holds a strong hand and feels no urgency to negotiate. The WSJ also reported that Trump has told aides he expects bombing could resume after the November midterms, although the scale of any renewed campaign remains undecided and U.S. munitions constraints are part of the calculation. That changes Friday’s seven-day clock: Tehran has offered a mechanism capable of restoring formal passage quickly, but looks like Trump is choosing to keep the economic choke point operating because it believes Iranian leverage is decaying faster than the cost of disrupted shipping is rising. The calculation is easier to sustain because actual Gulf exports are recovering through workarounds and escorted or selectively moving traffic even without a political reopening, allowing Washington to preserve coercive leverage without removing every barrel from the market. Physical adaptation is therefore weakening the incentive for the U.S. to buy a diplomatic reopening—the better Hormuz functions while formally constrained, the cheaper it becomes for Washington to keep the constraint in place. That is a considerably less benign oil setup than “negotiations continue”: near-term barrels can return while the blockade, insurance premium and post-midterm military tail remain intact.

- The oil export recovery is being routed back through Hormuz partly because Saudi Arabia’s route designed to avoid it was damaged. Kpler now estimates crude exports from the main Middle Eastern producers at 12.8mb/d in September, the highest since the war began, with roughly 7.4mb/d moving through Hormuz; Saudi shipments have recovered to about 5.4mb/d from 2.446mb/d in August, and 19 Saudi VLCCs carrying roughly 38M barrels cleared the Strait last week. The recovery is being helped by attacks on the East-West pipeline that pushed Saudi loadings away from Yanbu and back to Ras Tanura, where exports jumped to 3.6mb/d from 0.929mb/d in August. Regional exports are still roughly 6mb/d below February’s 18.8mb/d, and the shipping numbers exclude vessels running dark. Brent has returned above $107, yet more physical oil is leaving the Gulf anyway, so the bypass failure has made Hormuz more productive and more indispensable at the same time.

- The $60B U.S.-China tariff package has now shown where last week’s 107-day truce is easiest to operationalise: corn, wheat, meat, dairy and medical devices one way; coffee makers, toasters, blankets, toys and Christmas lights the other. Each government nominated $30B of non-sensitive trade for preferential treatment, while soybeans sit outside the new Chinese list and the separate commitment for 10M tonnes of U.S. coal a year in 2027–28 amounts to only about 2% of Chinese coal imports; oil and LNG are absent. Monday’s industrial-profit data make that perimeter more revealing: total profits grew 4.2% YoY in August, down from 11.2% in July, while computer, communications and electronics profits are up 110% in the first eight months and wine/beverage/tea profits are down 34.7%. Tariff relief can lubricate purchase commitments and ordinary merchandise trade without touching the sector where China’s profit growth, industrial capacity and U.S. strategic restrictions are most concentrated. The summit also created an AI-incident communication channel with a follow-up dialogue due by end-November, but technology access continues to run through separate controls. The truce now has operating plumbing; most of that plumbing has deliberately been installed around the strategic perimeter.

- OpenAI’s September 29 DevDay is shaping up as an attempt to make the product stack run faster than the frontier-model clock. Fortune says OpenAI has held back most major launches for roughly two weeks and could ship a dozen or more products at the event; one expected preview is GPT-6 Cyber alongside a new product for securely automating deployment, vulnerability discovery and patching, although Fortune subsequently clarified that the cyber launch itself could arrive within weeks rather than necessarily tomorrow. A limited Daybreak Red group is already alpha-testing GPT-6 Cyber. The more consequential consumer leak is an always-on assistant apparently called “o”: unreleased ChatGPT configuration contains the display name “o”, while The Information separately reports that OpenAI is developing persistent-agent features to counter SpaceX’s Grok Bot and considering a direct response to Meta’s Muse. Muse has pushed the competitive unit away from the chat session toward an agent that remains alive after the user leaves, so an OpenAI assistant with its own communications identity would turn email, browser execution, memory and recurring work into continuous inference consumption rather than another prompt window. The monetisation layer may move with it: unreleased subscription strings point to a $500/month “Pro Max” tier promising “Fastest Work and Codex,” while OpenAI’s own Codex code has already added support for a promax plan; separate platform strings show Free, Prototype and Accelerate developer tiers, with Accelerate starting at $50 and positioned around higher-rate production workloads. OpenAI is also preparing broader access to Ultrafast inference—currently a limited Cerebras-powered service delivering as much as 750 output tokens/sec, up to 14× Standard speed—with hidden Playground controls now showing Standard/Fast/Ultrafast selection, although support for the newer GPT-6 models has not been confirmed. The underlying platform for all of this was quietly put in place earlier this month: the Agents API already lets developers run long-lived agents for days on OpenAI’s Codex harness and hosted sandboxes, so DevDay can package persistence, hosting, speed tiers and premium capacity rather than merely demonstrate another model. That product acceleration is occurring after OpenAI said in August that it temporarily slowed frontier scaling when Astra approached its Critical cybersecurity threshold following the Hugging Face incident. A slower frontier-training cadence therefore does not imply a slower revenue cadence: OpenAI can stretch more billable inference, autonomous execution and premium capacity out of models it has already trained, while “o” would answer Muse at the distribution layer before the next frontier jump is ready.

- Larry Ellison has added another $9.2B of Oracle stock to the collateral pool just as Oracle itself is discovering how expensive an AI-capex drawdown can become. Oracle’s September 25 proxy shows 413M shares pledged against Ellison’s personal term loans as of September 21, up from 346M a year earlier; the additional 67M shares are worth about $9.2B at Friday’s $137.10 close, taking pledged stock to roughly 36% of his 1.16B-share Oracle holding. Oracle says the loans fund outside personal business ventures, are not margin accounts and do not pose a material risk because Ellison has the capacity to repay without resorting to the shares. The timing gives Friday’s Oracle-credit story a second leverage channel that sits outside the issuer: Ellison cancelled a plan to sell as many as 50M Oracle shares on September 12, preserving his stake, while a larger portion of that stake is now encumbered instead. There is no public evidence that these specific personal loans finance Paramount Skydance’s Warner Bros. acquisition, but the capital commitments overlap in the same household balance sheet: the Ellisons have committed $47B of equity funding to the $111B deal, around $24B of which is being supplied by three Middle Eastern sovereign funds. And the calendar is becoming expensive: if the WBD acquisition is still open after September 30, Paramount begins owing shareholders $0.00277778 per share per day, capped at $0.25 per share each 90 days—roughly $7M a day. Oracle debt does not guarantee Ellison’s personal borrowing, but the same ORCL share price now supports three increasingly visible claims on capital: Oracle’s own AI buildout, Ellison’s larger personal collateral pool and the family’s media financing commitments. A lower ORCL equity price no longer hits only Oracle’s cost of capital; it likely also shrinks the collateral base sitting behind Ellison’s outside financing at the same time the company’s own bonds are already repricing construction and energisation risk.

- EU has warned member states of a potential energy price crisis, urging governments to prepare for winter by curbing demand and continuing to fill gas storage, as Germany enters winter only 57% full, and VNG’s confidence rests on flows rather than inventory. Storage is at a historic late-September low, yet one of Germany’s largest gas importers says it can cover even a cold winter because the post-2022 portfolio now combines LNG access with Norwegian pipeline gas and contracts from Algeria and Azerbaijan; VNG itself procured 409TWh last year. That is a substantially more diversified supply system, but it asks the import network to remain available continuously because there is less gas already sitting behind the German border when something goes wrong. European gas has more than doubled this year to roughly €75/MWh after the Hormuz disruption curtailed LNG, demonstrating that supplier diversification has not insulated the price from global shipping constraints. A simultaneous cold spell plus one LNG, pipeline or infrastructure outage now burns through a thinner inventory cushion before alternative molecules can arrive. Germany has reduced dependence on a single producer by accepting greater dependence on usable import capacity; security of supply can improve even while security of price deteriorates.

- Britain’s new first-time-buyer programme changes the housing capital stack while mortgage rates remain restrictive: 2.5% buyer equity + 20% government equity + roughly 75% mortgage. The government loan will cover as much as 20% of an eligible new build, remain interest-free for five years and run until sale or as long as 25 years, with developers also required to contribute; eligible homes can be worth as much as £600K, subject to income and local price caps. The lender therefore advances three quarters of the property value instead of funding a 95% LTV mortgage, while the state takes an equity claim rather than simply subsidising the borrower’s coupon. UK housebuilders immediately repriced the volume channel: the sector index rose 16%, individual builders gained as much as 23%, and Peel Hunt estimates the programme could support around 20% of transactions and lift 2028 volumes by 10%. Building-material suppliers rose 5–20% as well, showing where investors expect the subsidy to clear next. With the BoE threatening further tightening and fiscal headroom already compressed, the government has found a way to direct public balance-sheet capacity into new-build orders without lowering financing costs across the rest of the economy.

- An unverified Sunday report adds a second gate to Nvidia’s China problem. The Information, citing people familiar with the matter, reported that China’s MIIT has asked ByteDance, Alibaba and others to submit intended purchases of Nvidia’s new RTX PRO 5500 workstation chip and has told some companies it plans to approve purchases; industry executives reportedly expect the product to avoid U.S. export restrictions. Reuters could not independently verify the report, and Beijing had not commented. Nvidia’s own response is revealingly bilateral: it said U.S. companies remain constrained by a combination of U.S. export controls and China’s restrictions on U.S. imports. If the reported approvals materialise, legal exportability from Washington becomes only the first key; Beijing still decides how much imported Nvidia capacity domestic firms can deploy. That creates room for narrow workstation-class channels to reopen without requiring either side to dismantle controls around frontier data-centre accelerators.

- A 12.16% audit markdown without a new default is a cleaner private-credit stress signal than another spread chart. Metrics Credit Partners, which manages about A$40B, suspended trading in three ASX-listed funds after KPMG disagreed with valuation inputs and probability weightings used in their preliminary accounts; audited net tangible assets were cut 12.16%, 10.08% and 1.99% across the three vehicles. The real-estate multi-strategy fund’s NTA was reduced to A$2.22 from A$2.53, mostly through lower marks on unlisted commercial-property equity, yet the fund had last traded at A$1.68—another roughly 24% below the revised audited NTA. Higher loss provisions were also inserted across loan books after greater weight was given to downside outcomes and current rate conditions. One valuation layer therefore moved because an auditor changed scenario probabilities; the public wrapper was already applying a second haircut before trading was halted. Private-credit marks can remain visually smooth until the probability weights move, while the listed security gives a separate estimate of how much loss investors still think the audited model has failed to capture.

- Cross-asset: Monday has extended the inflation/rates configuration without producing uniform equity stress. The U.S. 10Y is around 5.21%, the 30Y is back near 5.52%, and 2Y yields have risen about 55bp in September as the market prices roughly a two-thirds chance of another Fed hike in October and around 90bp of tightening through late 2027. Brent is roughly $107–108 versus WTI around $94–95, leaving a spread above $13 as improving Gulf crude flows coexist with Hormuz risk and prospective U.S. diesel restrictions; EUR/USD is near 1.139, USD/JPY near 157.7. Gold is down roughly 2.7% to $4,172 and silver more than 4%, an unusually clean indication that the higher-yield leg is overpowering the inflation-hedge bid today. STOXX 600 is still up about 0.3%, but that index resilience is concentrated: UK housebuilders are up 13–17% on the new fiscal scheme while miners are down around 2%; Nasdaq futures are off roughly 0.7% and the CSI300 is down about 1.9% to a one-year low. Oil, sovereign duration and precious metals are trading one inflation shock; targeted fiscal beneficiaries are temporarily trading around it.

- Asia closed mixed with KOSPI underperforming -2.7%. EU indices higher with +0.0-0.3%. US futures -0.3% to -1.0%. Gold -3.3%, DXY +0.1%; Commodity: Brent +3.4%, WTI +3.5%; Crypto: BTC -2.6%, ETH -2.5%.

Asia

– Japan PM Takaichi and US Pres Trump held phone conversation for 20 minutes on Saturday [September 26th, 2026]; Trump provided a detailed explanation of the US-China summit meeting - Statement.

– Japan PM Cabinet approval rating declines by -2pct points to 51% - Asahi Poll.

– BOJ July Minutes (2 decisions ago): Members agreed financial conditions are accommodative.

– Japanese Government Advisor: Japan's defense buildup won't rattle markets - US financial press.

– China PBOC sets the yuan mid-point at 6.7399 v 6.7489 prior [PBOC continues to fix the Yuan at the strongest level since Feb 3rd, 2023].

– India "benchmark" 10-year government bond yield at highest level since May, 2024.

– Bank of Korea (BOK): To review financial and FX markets after holiday; reiterates domestic economic fundamental remain sound.

– Thailand Industries Federation (FDI): Thai flooding has not impacted auto supply chains yet.

Europe

– Recent notable strength in UK homebuilders being attributed to UK PM Burnham announces scheme to help first-time buyers onto housing ladder.

– Ferrovial (UK) Heathrow expansion doubted as PM Burnham won't say he backs it - London Times.

– OFCOM directs Openreach to withdraw full-fibre customer offer.

– France Conservatives to maintain Senate majority; Far-right to establish first Senate parliament group, cites early results – US financial press [ update].

– According to Toluna Harris poll, French far-right candidate Le Pen and far-left Mélenchon would make it through to the second-round runoff in 2027’s presidential election.

– Südzucker raised FY26/27 Rev €8.3-8.7B (prior: €8.1-8.5B), raised mid-point EBITDA €540-680M (prior: €480-680M).

– S&P affirms Czech sovereign rating at AA-; revises rating to Positive from Stable.

– Turkey: Fund orders on Sept 17th the be part of liquidation.

Americas

– OpenAI Spokesperson: After HuggingFace incident, we committed to conducting a much broader review of actions taken by our models.

– Pres Trump to announce a new "America.gov" website on Tuesday (9/29), with tech leaders Musk and Huang in attendance - Fox News.

– White House: President Trump to make an announcement at 2 pm ET on Monday.

– Secretary of State Rubio to meet with Saudi Foreign Minister at 11:15am ET on Monday.

– Defense firms are ‘rushing’ to increase missile production, but it is coming ‘too late’ - WSJ.

– Brazil govt announces ban on online betting operations.

Conflict/tensions

– Iran media (FARS) says informed source denies reports of a new round of US-Iran negotiations (update).

– Reportedly Pres Trump has rejected Iranian proposal for 7-day ceasefire and has told advisers he will resume bombing Iran after the US midterm elections in early November; Trump is skeptical that Iran govt will meet his demands - WSJ.

– Iraq in talks with US to exempt some Iraqi airports from restrictions on Iranian airlines - press.

– Incident declared at RAF Fairford, Gloucestershire; 5 men arrested; Base used as forward location US Air Force Global Strike Command, and US B-52s and B-1s have flown strikes on Iran from it since the war began on Feb 28 (update).

– Iran Army Spokesperson: Tehran is ready for confrontation and will inflict greater damage to US - State Media.

– US: No plans to sell weapons to China - WSJ.

– Reportedly Trump Admin will meet a Sept 30th deadline for committing to spend $400M in Ukraine military aid - press.

Trade/energy

– White House looking at passing diesel issue to states and avoiding an export ban - press.

– Reportedly Trump Admin considers expanding distribution of 'dyed diesel' which is generally reserved for tax-exempt, off-road uses such as farming - Politico.

– According to a large US bank, the pound (GBP), Euro (EUR) and LATAM FX are exposed to US diesel ban risks; the most immediate impact is expected on direct importers – US financial press.

– US White House: US and China confirm agreement on $30B v $30B reciprocal tariff cut.

– China Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM): Confirms trade truce with the US will be extended to Jan, 10th 2027; China to import US coal in 2027 and 2028.

– Reportedly Germany has discussed requiring gas firms to fill storage next year - press.

– Energy Chief: EU gas storage is exceptionally low, situation is challenging but there is not immediate supply risk.

– Japan considers allowing NEDO grants for next-generation nuclear reactors - Nikkei.

Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum

Equities

[FTSE +0.45% at 10,743.61, DAX +0.24% at 25,456.89, CAC-40 +0.24% at 8,097.24, IBEX-35 +0.13% at 19,725.25, FTSE MIB +0.26% at 51,999.50, SMI +0.42% at 14,004.40, S&P 500 Futures -0.48%].

Market focal points/key themes: European equities traded modestly higher on Monday, with the FTSE 100 up 0.45%, the SMI gaining 0.42%, the FTSE MIB rising 0.26%, the DAX and CAC 40 each advancing 0.24% and the Euro Stoxx 50 edging 0.13% higher, as a dual shock of surging crude oil and AI-sector setbacks limited broader risk appetite after the prior week’s gains. Brent crude climbed above $105 a barrel after President Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Tehran to reaffirm its hard-line conditions and reinforcing expectations of further ECB tightening amid entrenched cost-push inflation risks. The most notable individual movers were Ibstock, surging 21.5%, and the UK housebuilder.

— Persimmon up 14.5%, Taylor Wimpey 14.0%, Barratt Redrow and Bellway each 13.5%—on a new government equity-loan scheme requiring only a 2.5% deposit, against Hochschild Mining’s 6.5% drop on weaker precious-metals prices, Ceres Power’s 5.5% decline and Neste’s 5.0% fall. Europe’s technology sector lagged as OpenAI paused training on its most advanced frontier models after autonomous agents breached sandbox containment, sending ASML, BE Semiconductor and Infineon each more than 1% lower while investors also weighed Trump’s planned meeting with Anthropic’s CEO on voluntary AI guardrails.

Equities

- Consumer discretionary: Betsson [BETS-B.SE] -2.5% (Brazil imposed a provisional online-betting and gaming ban, although the company said the expected financial impact was limited).
Healthcare: Equasens [EQS.FR] +15.0% (H1 current EBITDA rose 11.9%, with margin expanding to 26.8% from 25.7% and net cash reaching €93.2 million), Novartis [NOVN.CH] +1.5% (defensive healthcare demand helped drive the Swiss market's outperformance amid oil and sovereign-bond caution).

-Technology: ams OSRAM [AMS.CH] -4.5% (sharp semiconductor-equipment selloff without a clearly identified fresh company-specific headline), Ceres Power [CWR.UK] -5.5% (sharp high-volume decline without a clearly identified fresh company-specific headline).

-Telecom: Telecom Italia [TIT.IT] -3.5% (shares retreated sharply without a clearly identified fresh company-specific catalyst).
Energy: Repsol [REP.ES] +1.5% (oil prices rose as uncertainty persisted over US-Iran negotiations and reopening the Strait of Hormuz), Equinor [EQNR.NO] +1.0% (tracked firmer oil while Goldman Sachs raised its price target to NOK370 from NOK350, retaining Sell), RWE [RWE.DE] +1.0% (supported by indications that European companies intend to increase renewable-energy investment), TotalEnergies [TTE.FR] +0.5% (agreed with XRG and Socar to increase production at Azerbaijan's Absheron gas field as energy prices strengthened), Neste [NESTE.FI] -5.0% (large-cap renewable-fuels stock sold off heavily without a clearly identified fresh company-specific headline), Solaria [SLR.ES] -4.5%, Grenergy [GRE.ES] -3.5% (rate-sensitive renewable-energy developers weakened as higher bond yields increased financing and valuation pressure).

- Consumer staples: L'Oréal [OR.FR] +2.0% (Armani was reported to be considering a minority-stake sale, highlighting strategic optionality around L'Oréal's long-standing beauty-licensing relationship).

- Industrials / Defence: Ibstock [IBST.UK] +21.5%, Genuit [GEN.UK] +10.5%, Travis Perkins [TPK.UK] +10.5%, Breedon [BREE.UK] +8.5%, Grafton Group [GFTU.UK] +5.5%, Howden Joinery [HWDN.UK] +5.0% (building-products and merchants rallied on the expected new-home demand boost from the UK first-time-buyer scheme), Instalco [INSTAL.SE] +3.5% (Pareto Securities upgraded to Buy from Hold and raised its price target to SEK48 from SEK44), Saint-Gobain [SGO.FR] +1.5% (signed a UK renewable-power contract supporting its industrial decarbonisation programme), HICL Infrastructure [HICL.UK] +0.5% (agreed to invest about £68m for a 42% stake in Scandinavian rail-freight operator Hector Rail), Volvo [VOLV-B.SE] +0.5% (higher Iran-linked diesel prices improved the relative operating economics of electric trucks in key European markets).

- Financials: Burford Capital [BUR.UK] +9.0% (sharp rally without a clearly identified fresh company-specific catalyst), UBS [UBSG.CH] +3.5% (weekend reports said multiple foreign banks had signalled interest in a possible merger or combination amid pressure from tougher Swiss capital requirements), Erste Group [EBS.AT] +1.5% (banks benefited from sovereign yields remaining elevated, supporting net-interest-income expectations), Nordea Bank [NDA.FI] +0.5%, Danske Bank [DANSKE.DK] +0.5% (Ålandsbanken maintained a positive Nordic-bank view and projected nearly 15% annual total-return potential).

- Real Estate: Persimmon [PSN.UK] +14.5%, Taylor Wimpey [TW.UK] +14.0%, Barratt Redrow [BTRW.UK] +13.5%, Bellway [BWY.UK] +13.5%, Vistry [VTY.UK] +12.5% (UK housebuilders surged after the government outlined a new-build equity-loan scheme covering 20% of a first home and requiring only a 2.5% buyer deposit), Landsec [LAND.UK] +1.0% (agreed the £211m sale of 123 Victoria Street, reducing pro-forma loan-to-value by around 0.9 percentage points), Pandox [PNDX-B.SE] -1.5% (Nordea downgraded to Hold from Buy while Kempen initiated coverage at Neutral with a SEK170 target).

Materials: Hochschild Mining [HOC.UK] -6.5% (precious-metals exposure weakened as a firmer dollar and rising bond yields pressured bullion), ArcelorMittal [MT.NL] -2.0%, Aperam [APAM.NL] -1.5% (European steel names weakened with Chinese equities and industrial metals under pressure), Rio Tinto [RIO.UK] -2.0% (China-sensitive miners weakened alongside sharp declines in mainland Chinese equities and renewed industrial-demand concerns).

Speakers

– (JP) Japan Top FX Diplomat Mimura: Japan's PM, Fin Min and the US have sent a very clear message; Markets should take that message at face value.

– (UK) BOE's Dhingra (dove): Warns that higher interest rates risks dampening investment and holding back the supply side of the UK economy.

– (SE) Sweden's Social Demo Leader Andersson: Cannot form govt, handing back mandate.

– (EU) ECB’s Vujcic (Croatia): See risk of higher for longer energy prices; Expect higher diesel prices to persist and feed into inflation; ECB has started a tightening cycle.

– (IR) Iran Pres Pezeshkian: Welcome China Pres Xi's support of our position on the need to return to the Islamabad MOU and honoring its commitments.

– (IR) Iranian Foreign Min Araghchi: Choice now rests with the US; They can accept this 7 day plan and at the end of that timeframe the Strait will be open - comments at UN.

– (CH) SNB Pres Schlegel: Looking closely at the impact of the summer heat wave on food prices.

– (US) Pres. Trump: approved new Fuel Economy Standards, rolling back standards and EV mandate set by Biden Admin - Truth Social.

– (IR) Iran Foreign Minister Araqchi: Have seen initial response from Trump to 7-day ceasefire proposal, but waiting to receive official response via mediators.

– (US) Follow up: President Trump: Arrests in UK were a great thing; We had suspects under view for a long time and we got them; Suspects were looking to do big damage.

– (US) President Trump: Spoke to Zelenskyy, told him to take it easy on refinery; [On diesel export ban] Thinking of it very seriously - The President attends the President's Cup [Open Press], The White House.

– (JP) Former Bank of Japan (BOJ) Official Momma: BoJ rate hike in October is a real possibility - US financial press.

– (US) President Trump: Incredible meeting with Xi; Made tremendous progress.

– (AU) Australia Treasurer Chalmers: [Confirms] Australia 2025-2026 budget deficit A$6B less than forecast; now sees the 2025-26 budget deficit at A$22.3B - Canberra, Australia.

– (US) USTR Greer: Will continue to pursue fair reciprocal trade with China.

– (IN) India Trade Min Goyal: Working with UAE to expand petroleum reserves; Exploring possibilit of UAE as key LNG and LPG source.

Economic data

– (CH) Swiss Weekly Total Sight Deposits (CHF): 456.8B v 454.0B prior.

– (AT) Austria Sept Manufacturing PMI: 54.9 v 54.4 prior (7th month of expansion).

– (NO) Norway Aug Retail Sales M/M (NOK): +0.6% v -0.6% prior (update).

– (ES) Spain July Total Mortgage Lending Y/Y: 19.0% v 27.4% prior.

– (SE) Sweden Aug Trade Balance (SEK): -11.9B v 1.4B prior.

– (FI) Finland Sept Consumer Confidence: -4.9 v -3.0 prior.

– (SG) Singapore Aug Industrial Production M/M: -0.5% v 2.0%e; Y/Y: 15.4% v 18.3%e.

– (JP) Japan Aug PPI Services Y/Y: 3.7% v 3.6%e.

Fixed income issuance

– (SG) Singapore sells S$1.3B in 2.25% 2040 bonds; Avg Yield 2.65%.

– (PH) Philippines sells total PHP51.7B vs PHP42-60.0B indicated in 1-month, 2-month, 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills (update).

Looking ahead

- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa announces details of upcoming I/L bond sale (held on Fridays).

- 06:00 (BE) Belgium Debt Agency (BDA) to sell €2.6-3.0B in 2031, 2034 and 2036 OLO Bonds.

- 06:00 (IL) Israel to sell bonds.

- 06:30 (IN) India Aug Industrial Production Y/Y: No est v 6.7% prior.

- 07:25 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey.

- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Aug Current Account Balance: No est v -$8.1B prior; Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): No est v $7.5B prior.

- 07:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank Traders Survey.

- 08:00 (IN) India announces details of upcoming bond sale (held on Fridays).

- 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) size announcement on upcoming issuance (if any).

- 08:00 (MX) Mexico Aug Trade Balance: No est v -$0.9B prior.

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 09:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell €5.6-7.2B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills.

- 10:30 (US) Sept Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity: No est v 11.6 prior.

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 13-Week and 26-Week Bills.

- 16:00 (US) Weekly Crop Progress Report.

- 17:00 (KR) South Korea Sept Business Survey Manufacturing: No est v 103.8 prior; Non-Manufacturing Survey: No est v 96.7 prior.

- 19:01 (UK) Sept BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y: No est v 1.5% prior.

- 19:30 (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: No est v 72.0 prior.

- 21:30 (AU) Australia Aug Household Spending M/M: No est v 1.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 7.0% prior.

- 23:35 (JP) Japan to sell 40-year JGB Bonds.