As suggested, an upside day

Nick Mastrandrea Market Tea Leaves

USD: Sep '26 is Up at 100.865.

Energies: Oct '26 Crude is Up at 95.91.

Financials: The Dec '26 30 Year T-Bond is Lower by 18 ticks and trading at 104.00.

Indices: The Sep '26 S&P 500 emini ES contract is 154 ticks er and trading at 7766.00.

Gold: The Dec'26 Gold contract is trading Down at 4187.20.

Initial conclusion

This is not a correlated market. The USD is Up and Crude is Up which is not normal, and the 30-Year T-Bond is trading Lower. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Lower and Crude is trading Higher which is correlated. Gold is trading Low which is correlated with the US dollar trading Up. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one goes Up the other goes Down. All of Asia traded Mixed. All of Europe is trading Higher.

Possible challenges to traders

FOMC Member Bowman Speaks at 8:15 AM EST. Major.
FOMC Member Cook Speaks at 1:15 PM EST. Major.
FOMC Member Barkin Speaks at 1:30 PM EST. Major.

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 2-year Treasury notes (ZT) and the S&P futures contract. The YM contract is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments. Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

Last Friday the ZT dived Lower at around 8:30 AM EST with no news items pending. The Dow climbed Higher at around the same time. Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. The ZT dived Lower at around 8:30 AM EST and the Dow climbed Higher around the same time. These charts represent the newest version of Bar Charts, and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better. This represented a Short opportunity on the 2-year note, as a trader you could have netted about a dozen ticks per contract on this trade. Each tick is worth $6.25. Please note: the front month for the ZT is now Dec '26. I've changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Charts courtesy of BarCharts

Bias

On Friday our bias was to the Upside and the markets didn't disappoint as the Dow rose by 479 points and the other indices gained ground as well. Today our bias is to the Downside.

Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

As the saying goes "what goes down must come up" and the markets achieved that on Friday. The Dow gained 479 points and the other indices rose with all boats rising to the occasion.

Author

Nick Mastrandrea

Market Tea Leaves

Nick Mastrandrea over 20 years experience in trading and formerly held a NASD Series 7. He currently holds a NJ Life, Health and Variable Authority. Nick is a published writer and his work has appeared in Futures Magazine, TraderPlanet and others.

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