Russia delays open for FX and money markets, unclear when the equity market will open

General trend

- RUB indicated to drop by over 40% vs the USD.

- Russia’s capital controls in focus.

- WTI Crude FUTs rose over 6%.

- Moscow Exchange: FX repo market will be shut.

- UST yields decline [curve steepens]; Fed Fund Futures rise.

- USD trades generally firmer.

- EUR/USD declines on Russia concerns; EUR rises versus NOK, SEK and PLN.

- USD/JPY trades generally flat [Yen and USD battle for safe haven flows?]; USD/CHF trades slightly higher.

- Wheat continues to be supported by Russia and Ukraine.

- No updates have been seen regarding the Russia/Ukraine talks.

- Japan government’s position on the Russian SWIFT sanctions is not clear.

- Companies react to the new Russian sanctions [Australia sovereign wealth fund, Bank of China, BOC Aviation, BP, Equinor, GPIF].

- Financials trade lower after the SWIFT sanctions on Russia.

- Energy and Resources indices rise in Australia.

- Nikkei 225 trades only slightly lower.

- HK Casino names drop amid lockdown concerns- The strength in China payment cos. attributed to the SWIFT sanctions on Russia.

- Straits Times Index underperforms in Singapore with the focus on Russia and financial sanctions.

- Outgoing RBNZ Chief Economist commented on rates and Ukraine/Russia.

- RBA rate decision is due on Tues.

Headlines/Economic data

Australia/New Zealand

- ASX 200 opened 0.0%.

- (AU) Australia Q4 Corp OP Profit Q/Q: 2.0% V 2.0%E; inventories Q/Q: 1.1% V 0.0%E.

- (NZ RBNZ Chief Economist Ha: Wanted to give markets a strong message on our determination to control inflation, Rates 100bps above neural of 2.0% is reasonable from historical perspective; content with market pricing of rate outlook, 50bps moves are possible if needed.

- (NZ) New Zeland Feb ANZ activity outlook: -2.2 V +11.8 prior; business confidence: -51.8 V -23.2 prior; inflation expectation 5.3% v 4.4% prior.

- (AU) Australia Jan Retail Sales M/M: 1.8% v 0.3%e.

- (NZ) New Zealand PM Ardern: Arrivals to the country will no longer have to self isolate effective Mar 3rd; Outbreak could pear mid March.

- (NZ) Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Hawkesby: Can frontload policy tightening if needed; Higher oil prices add to inflation in near term.

Japan

- Nikkei 225 opened -0.1%.

- 6502.JP CEO Tsunakawa: Going private is too risky, has several risks (as activists seek sale); splitting the company into 2 is the best path for growth.

- (JP) Japan planning to raise gasoline subsidy to ¥10/L, starting in March - Japan press.

- (JP) Japan Jan Preliminary Industrial Production M/M: -1.3% V -0.7%E; Y/Y: -0.9% V 0.1%E.

- (JP) Japan Jan Preliminary Industrial Production M/M: -1.3% V -0.7%E; Y/Y: -0.9% V 0.1%E.

- (JP) Japan Foreign Min Hayashi: Japan is considering sanctions against Belarus; Russia comments on nuclear deterrence are highly dangerous.

- (JP) Japan Govt official: hard to say how Ukraine situation will impact output from March onwards.

- (JP) Japan PM Kishida: Want to act quickly to freeze Putin assets; Speed important in blocking Russia banks from SWIFT.

- (JP) Japan Top Currency Official Kanda: Discussed market conditions in wake of Ukraine War; Japan to join SWIFT Sanction against Russia.

- (JP) Japan Government Pension Fund (GPIF) (largest pension fund in the world): Holds ~¥50B of Russia bonds, ¥170B in Russia shares.

Korea

- Kospi opened -0.5%.

- (KR) North Korea claims to have conducted test to develop 'reconnaissance satellite' seen as missile launch – Yonhap.

- (KR) South Korea Govt to suspend vaccine pass enforcement at restaurants, cafes starting Tuesday, Mar 1.

China/Hong Kong

- Hang Seng opened +0.2%; Shanghai Composite opened 0.0%.

- (CN) China Diplomat Wang: One China principle is key to promoting US-China relationship; Should keep dialogue without decoupling.

- (CN) China PBOC sets Yuan reference rate: 6.3222 v 6.3346 prior.

- (CN) Reportedly large China state run banks in Nantong in Jiangsu province, have cut the minimum down payment required for first time home buyers to 20% (prior 30%) - press.

- (CN) China Everbright Bank researcher: Liquidity in the financial system is expected to remain reasonably ample next month given the PBOC has recently increased the scale of reverse repos – press.

- (HK) Hong Kong Feb new home sales -80% m/m, Govt cites coronavirus outbreak as reasoning.

- (CN) China PBOC to conduct CNY5.0B in 3-month Central Bank Bill Swap (CBS) operation on today's session v CNY5.0B prior.

- (CN) China Industry Min Xiao: 2021 Chip production +33% y/y, supply chain stability issues remain.

- (CN) China State Planner (NDRC) and Market Regulator (SAMR) to hold meeting with Dalian Commodities Exchange on irregular trading in Iron Spot and Futs markets.

Other

- OLAM.SG Reports FY21 (S$) Net 686.4M v 245.7M y/y; Rev 47.0B v 35.8B y/y.

North America

- AFLT.RU Flight said to have entered Canadian airspace.

- (US) White House Press Sec Psaki: Energy sanctions are certainly on the table; We have not taken them off.

Europe

- (RU) EU, US and UK Announce to cut off 'certain' Russian Banks from SWIFT (as speculated); to sanction Central Bank of Russia (CBR); cancel 'Golden Passports' program for Russian – Press.

- (RU) Russia Pres Putin ordered Russian Nuclear Frorces put on high alart - Russian press.

- (UR) Ukraine Pres Zelenskiy told UM PM Johnson he thinks the next 24 hours will crucial period for Ukraine; Spoke with EU official on Ukraine membership in the EU.

- (EU) Reportedly European Commission is planning to spend €450M of EU funds on weapons for Ukraine - press.

- ROSN.UK BP to exit its 19.75% Shareholding in Rosneft; To write down up to $25B at the end of Q1; BP's CEO Looney to resign from board of Rosneft; Effective immediately.

- (RU) Russia trying to block foreigners trying to sell Russian securities – press.

- (RU) Russia Central Bank to make decision on stock trading by 13:00 local time, confirms have ban foreigners from selling Russian securities.

- (RU) Russia Central Bank releases capital buffer to free up ~RUB733B (~$6.96B) and other additional measures to prop up banks.

Levels as of 00:15ET

- Hang Seng -1.2%; Shanghai Composite -0.2%; Kospi +0.3%; Nikkei225 -0.0%; ASX 200 +0.7%.

- Equity Futures: S&P500 -2.2%; Nasdaq100 -2.4%, Dax -3.8%; FTSE100 -2.4%.

- EUR 1.1194-1.1133; JPY 115.79-115.26; AUD 0.7194-0.7168; NZD 0.6700-0.6676.

- Commodity Futures: Gold +1.3% at $1,912/oz; Crude Oil +5.8% at $96.91/brl; Copper +0.5% at $4.51/lb.