Morning briefing: EUR/USD has a scope to fall towards 1.1600-1.1550

The Dollar Index can move toward 100-100.50 levels while it trades above 98.75/50. EURUSD has a scope to fall towards 1.160-1.155 while below 1.17. EURINR can trade within 104.50-106.00 region. EURJPY need to see a break past 185 to head toward 186-187 levels. While USDJPY will have to sustain above 158 to extend the rise toward 160-162 levels. USDCNY can fall toward 6.95-6.90 levels. Aussie & Pound are holding the 0.6650-0.6750 1.340-1.355 range respectively for now. USDINR is moving within the 89.75-90.25 range. The targets of 90.35-90.50 are kept open for now. US CPI & US New Home Sales are scheduled for release today.

The US Treasury yields have inched up within its range. The near-term picture continues to remain mixed. We will have to wait for the range breakout to get clarity on the next direction of move. The German yields are struggling to rise above their resistance. That leaves them vulnerable for a fall in the coming days. The 10Yr GoI has recovered well after a short-lived intraday fall. The bias remains bullish while it sustains above its support.

The Dow and DAX are headed towards resistances near 50,000 and 26,000 respectively from where rejection looks possible. The immediate view is bullish till the resistance levels are tested. Nifty bounced yesterday, holding above 25600 and could rise slowly towards 26000 and higher. Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party is expected to dissolve the country's Lower House later this month and opt for a snap election likely in Feb-26. Nikkei has surged well today, rising by more than 3%. The rise to our expected resistance at 54,000 can be seen much sooner from where a correction is possible. Shanghai could rise in the near term but could face resistance near 4150-4200 from where a dip looks possible in the medium term.

Brent and WTI are testing key resistances near $64 and $60. They need a sustained breaks above these levels to move higher towards $66–$68 and $62–$64. Gold is holding above $4,600 with scope for $4,650–$4,700. Silver remains bullish after a fresh high near $86 with upside towards $88–$90. Copper is above $6 and can extend gains to $6.10–$6.20. Natural Gas stays weak below $3.5, keeping downside risks towards $3.00.