GBP/USD: a downside break would need a material tightening of the polls [Video]

Richard Perry Independent Analyst

GBP/USD

As another corrective drift has taken hold of the near term outlook on Cable once more, the consolidation range continues to progress. In front of the UK election (on 12th December) we see little real reason for the range between $1.2765/$1.3010 to be broken. A downside break would need a material tightening of the polls, but in a campaign so steeped with drudgery for both main parties, it is difficult to see much changing right now. The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement (of $1.2193/$1.3012) at $1.2820 has acted like a magnet for the price in recent weeks and remains a key gauge. Momentum indicators are on an unwinding drift. Initial resistance is now at Monday’s high of $1.2910 as the oscillations on the hourly chart momentum indicators point to a drift to $1.2820 but without any real conviction for much else.

Author

Richard Perry

Independent Analyst

Richard Perry, Independent Market Analyst, has over 20 years of experience working in financial markets in London.

GBP/USD fills weekly bearish gap vs USD; upside seems capped amid UK political chaos

The GBP/USD pair climbs back to the 1.3235 region during the Asian session and fails the weekly bearish gap opening amid a modest US Dollar downtick, though the upside potential seems limited.

EUR/USD declines to near 1.1450 amid concerns over progress for US-Iran peace deal

The EUR/USD pair drifts lower to around 1.1460 during the early Asian session on Monday. Concerns about progress for the US-Iran peace deal and expectations of higher US interest rates boost a safe-haven currency such as the US Dollar against the Euro. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is set to speak later on Monday.

Gold clings to recovery gains near $4,200; US-Iran talks eyed

Gold has staged a solid rebound in the mid-Asian session on Monday, closing the bearish opening gap. The US Dollar pauses its upside amid renewed progress on the US-Iran peace talks after Qatar and Pakistan said that the US and Iran agreed to establish a de-confliction cell involving Lebanon, with mediator support to ensure termination compliance.

Breaking: Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz amid ceasefire deal violation

Iran says it is closing the Strait of Hormuz after accusing the United States (US) and Israel of violating the ceasefire. According to Iran, the decision came over the continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy issued a warning to all vessels: "Do not approach the Strait of Hormuz; otherwise, your security will be jeopardized."

Week ahead: Fed’s hawkish tilt and Iran deal turn focus to PCE inflation and PMIs

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh didn’t waste any time in his first FOMC meeting in prioritizing the need for the central bank to bring inflation back within the Fed’s 2% objective, unsettling markets just as subsiding geopolitical risks had lifted the mood in the past week.

Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.