EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: From rally to reality, Euro loses grip above 1.1400
- EUR/USD remained close to the area of recent peaks near the 1.1400 barrier.
- The Greenback maintained its offered stance near three-year troughs.
- The ECB left the door open to further easing in the next few months.
EUR/USD maintained its positive footing this week, extending its four‑week bullish run.
While the pair hovered near the key 1.1400 resistance, a decisive break above that level remained elusive. Bolstered by upside momentum, EUR/USD continued trading above both its 200‑day and 200‑week simple moving averages (SMA) at 1.0756 and 1.0840, respectively.
As in recent weeks, this lift coincided with a sharp sell‑off in the US Dollar (USD), which kept the US Dollar Index (DXY) pinned near three‑year lows around the 99.00 support level.
In contrast, Germany’s 10‑year bund yields stayed locked in their multi‑week downtrend, dipping below 2.50% for the first time since early March.
Tariff turmoil keeps markets on edge
Trade tensions remain front and center. President Trump’s sweeping 10% tariff on all US trading partners—escalating to as much as 145% on Chinese imports—has rattled investor nerves.
While a 90-day tariff freeze was offered to countries that choose not to retaliate, and smartphones and computers were exempted from the China list at the last minute, the relief proved short-lived, as tensions rapidly returned to the markets as well as the widespread view that a global trade war is already among us.
Central bank shifts: Cautious Fed, dovish ECB
The Federal Reserve (Fed) held rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% at its March 18–19 meeting, with Chair Jerome Powell adopting a cautious tone. He cited slower growth, persistent tariff‑linked inflation risks, and left the door open for cuts later this year.
In a speech in Chicago this week, Powell pushed back against expectations of immediate rate cuts, underscoring the Fed’s commitment to anchoring inflation expectations and maintaining price stability as the foundation for sustainable employment gains. He also warned of stagflation risks, cautioning that the Fed may face difficult trade‑offs if tariffs deepen and growth diverges from inflation.
Markets now appear to be pricing in roughly 100 basis points of easing by December.
Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a widely anticipated 25 bp cut, lowering the deposit rate to 2.25%. In a subtle shift, the policy statement dropped the word “restrictive,” implying that the Governing Council now views policy as neutral.
At her press conference, President Christine Lagarde remained data‑dependent, avoiding forward guidance; however, her tone was more dovish than expected. A unanimous vote, discussion of a possible 50 bp move, and rising concerns over euro strength have markets penciling in another cut as early as June.
Technical setup: Watching key levels
On the charts, resistance looms at 1.1473 (April 11 high), followed by 1.1498 (February 2022 peak) and the key 1.1500 psychological level.
On the other hand, initial support sits at the 200-day SMA at 1.0756, ahead of the March 27 low of 1.0732, which appears propped up by the proximity of the interim 55-day SMA.
Furthermore, momentum indicators show a persistent constructive tone: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains close to 71, just above the overbought threshold, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) above 47 still signals a solid underlying trend.
EUR/USD daily chart
Short-term outlook: Volatility ahead
As the US Dollar strength wavers and trade rhetoric intensifies, EUR/USD remains on a knife-edge. Both the Fed and ECB are walking a tightrope, weighing the risks of slowing growth, sticky inflation, and policy missteps. With each new data print or policy signal, expect more sharp moves in the pair—and no shortage of volatility in the weeks ahead.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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Author
Pablo Piovano
FXStreet
Born and bred in Argentina, Pablo has been carrying on with his passion for FX markets and trading since his first college years.
