EUR/USD: Ops! she did it again

EUR/USD Current Price: 1.1267

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Markets were extremely thin at the beginning of the day, with the dollar easing alongside with risk-averse sentiment, and the EUR/USD pair recovering up to 1.1244, ahead of the US FED meeting. Once again, Yellen delayed a rate hike, and the dollar plummeted against all of its majors rivals, on news that FED members unanimously voted to live rates unchanged. The dot plot showed six officials look now for just one rate hike this year, while expectations are of three rate hikes in 2017 and another three in  2018. Growth forecast has been revised lower, to 2.0% from previous 2.2%, whilst they reckon that "the pace of improvement in the labor market has slowed while growth in economic activity appears to have picked up."

During the press conference, Janet Yellen said that economic indicators have been mixed and that there´s no preset course for the economic policy. Nothing really new, but she also added that growth has posted a "sizable rebound" in the second quarter, but it has been "lackluster" according to her words. Also, she said that they expect core inflation will reach the 2.0% target over the next two-three years. During the press conference, and after being questioned, she added that a July hike "it's not impossible"  if data improves enough.

The EUR/USD pair flirted with the 1.1300 level, but despite the dovish stance, the pair was unable to break above it and pullback to 1.1250 region, meeting some buying interest around its 20 SMA in the 4 hours chart. The technical indicators in the mentioned time frame remain below their mid-lines, modestly retreating from them, whilst stronger selling interest remains around 1.1295, the 38.2% retracement of the May's decline. Nevertheless, the FED has painted a gloomy picture, something that should keep the greenback under selling pressure. 

Support levels: 1.1245 1.1190 1.1140 

Resistance levels: 1.1295 1.1340 1.1385

EUR/JPY Current price: 119.36

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The EUR/JPY pair recovered some ground this Wednesday, but remained below Tuesday's opening, having shown little reaction to FED's decision, as both currencies reacted in tandem to dollar's movements. The Bank of Japan is having its economic policy meeting during the upcoming hours, largely expected to remain on hold. If that's the case, the Japanese yen can surge across the board, and see the pair plummeting, below the multi-year low posted this week at 118.50. Short term, the 1 hour chart shows that the price remains below a strongly bearish 100 SMA, currently around 119.75, whilst the technical indicators have lost upward strength, but remain within positive territory. In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators retreated from their mid-lines, heading modestly lower within negative territory, whilst the price remains far below a bearish 100 SMA, all of which supports additional declines  after the dust settles. 

Support levels: 118.90 118.50 118.10 

Resistance levels: 119.40 119.75 120.30

GBP/USD Current price: 1.4180

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The British Pound outperformed its major rivals at the beginning of the day, recovering against the greenback, from 1.4090 to 1.4213 mid European morning, getting a boost from better-than-expected UK employment data. According to official data, UK unemployment fell to 1.67 million in the three months to April, down 20,000 from the previous quarter, official. The fall took the unemployment rate to 5%, the lowest rate since October 2005, whilst earnings, excluding bonuses, rose by 2.3% compared with last year 2.2% advance.  After FED's announcement, the Pound lagged, unable to run to fresh daily highs, as Brexit fears remain in the background. The pair held below the daily high, and in fact, below the 1.4200 figure, presenting a technical bearish bias, as in the 4 hours chart, the price is unable to  extend beyond a bearish 20 SMA, whilst the Momentum indicator has turned sharply lower below the 100 level, and the RSI indicator hovers around 42. Once the market digest the latest of the FED, fears over the outcome of the upcoming referendum will likely keep the Pound under selling pressure. 

Support levels: 1.4160 1.4110 1.4050

Resistance levels: 1.4220 1.4260 1.4310

USD/JPY Current price: 105.95

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Dollar's bearish momentum post-FED, sent the USD/JPY down to 105.42, the lowest level since October 2014, although the pair later bounced towards the 106.00 region, trimming most of its daily losses ahead of the BOJ's economic policy decision. US treasury bonds rose modestly this Wednesday, but yields fell to fresh 3½-year lows, with the 10Y yield down to 1.60%, its lowest since December 2012 ahead of the release. Still, after the disappointing decision, US 10-year bond yield fell further to 1.58%. The Japanese Central Bank is largely expected to remain on-hold, which means that the USD/JPY pair may retest the mentioned low, and even extend its decline towards the 105.00 during the Asian session, given that the FED gave no reasons for buying the greenback. Technical readings favor the downward continuation, as in the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators have turned modestly lower within negative territory, whilst the 100 SMA has crossed below the 200 SMA both far above the current level. 

Support levels: 105.50 105.00 104.60

Resistance levels: 106.40 106.85 107.30

AUD/USD Current price: 0.7399

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The AUD/USD pair advanced up to 0.7445, underpinned at the beginning of the day by rising stocks and stronger base metals' prices, with gold approaching further to the 1,300 region and copper adding over 1.0% ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting. The AUD/USD pair however, retreated after testing the mentioned high, as US stocks turned sharply lower into the close, with Wall Street closing into the red. The pair is now struggling to hold above the 0.7400 level, with a limited downward potential in the 4 hours chart, as the technical indicators turned modestly lower in neutral territory, but the price holds above its 20 SMA and its 200 EMA. Also, the rally stalled a handful of pips below a major static resistance level, the 38.2% retracement of this year's rally at 0.7450, still the level to break to confirm a new leg higher. Below 0.7370 on the other hand, the risk turns back lower, with scope to extend its decline down to 0.7280.

Support levels: 0.7370 0.7330 0.7280 

Resistance levels: 0.7450 0.7490 0.7525