EUR/USD Forecast: Euro losses to remain limited in near term
- EUR/USD trades below 1.0500 in the European session.
- Financial markets in the US will remain closed on Monday.
- The technical outlook remains bullish, with a potential for a technical correction in the near term.
EUR/USD trades in a relatively tight channel below 1.0500 to begin the new week. Financial markets in the US will remain closed in observance of the Presidents' Day holiday on Monday, limiting the volatility in the second half of the day.
Euro PRICE Last 7 days
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies last 7 days. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -1.41% | -1.53% | 0.32% | -0.71% | -1.36% | -1.24% | -0.99% | |
| EUR | 1.41% | -0.06% | 1.86% | 0.82% | 0.05% | 0.25% | 0.50% | |
| GBP | 1.53% | 0.06% | 1.76% | 0.84% | 0.10% | 0.32% | 0.54% | |
| JPY | -0.32% | -1.86% | -1.76% | -1.07% | -1.61% | -1.55% | -1.30% | |
| CAD | 0.71% | -0.82% | -0.84% | 1.07% | -0.62% | -0.56% | -0.33% | |
| AUD | 1.36% | -0.05% | -0.10% | 1.61% | 0.62% | 0.21% | 0.44% | |
| NZD | 1.24% | -0.25% | -0.32% | 1.55% | 0.56% | -0.21% | 0.23% | |
| CHF | 0.99% | -0.50% | -0.54% | 1.30% | 0.33% | -0.44% | -0.23% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
The persistent selling pressure surrounding the US Dollar (USD) helped EUR/USD post strong gains in the previous week. Easing fears over an aggressive trade policy by US President Donald Trump helped the market mood improve and weighed on the USD. Ahead of the weekend, the data from the US showed that Retail Sales in the US declined by 0.9% on a monthly basis in January, not allowing the USD to stage a rebound.
The economic calendar will not feature any high-tier data releases in the first half of the week. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will publish the minutes of its January policy meeting.
In the meantime, market participants will pay close attention to developments surrounding the Trump administration's trade policy with the EU.
European Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic will travel to Washington on Monday to meet with US counterparts to discuss US tariffs.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart declines from the 80 mark it touched on Friday but holds above 60, suggesting that EUR/USD remains bullish after correcting from overbought levels.
On the downside, 1.0440 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the latest downtrend) aligns as first support before 1.0400 (100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), Fibonacci 50% retracement) and 1.0360 (200-period SMA).
Looking north, first resistance could be spotted at 1.0500-1.0510 (round level, Fibonacci 78.6% retracement) ahead of 1.0550 (static level) and 1.0600 (static level, beginning point of the downtrend).
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Author
Eren Sengezer
FXStreet
As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.
